motief/reports/overton_window/STATUS.md

Overton Window Analysis — Status

Last updated: 2026-06-07 Active plan: docs/plans/2026-06-06-001-overton-coherent-narrative-plan.md Working branch: feat/right-wing-motion-analysis

---

Context

The Overton window analysis is a flagship output of Stemwijzer's Track 2: Analytical Depth and Transparency (see STRATEGY.md). Stemwijzer is a Dutch parliamentary analysis platform with three tracks:

1. Data pipeline reliability — robust ingestion of all Tweede Kamer votes
2. Analytical depth and transparency — interpretable political dimensions (this analysis)
3. Agent-native architecture — self-documenting, agent-operable codebase

The Overton analysis demonstrates what the platform can do: SVD compass, 29K+ scored motions, 2D extremity scoring, and Procrustes-aligned drift detection — all in service of a real political science question.

Goal

A coherent, multi-surface story about whether the Dutch Overton window shifted — accessible as an interactive Quarto article, live in the Streamlit Explorer, and backed by reproducible analysis scripts. The narrative serves dual purpose: a political science finding AND a platform showcase that drives engagement with the Stemwijzer compass and explorer.

Three tiers:

1. Narrative spine — Quarto article (the story, with "About Stemwijzer" section)
2. Detailed appendices — Markdown reports in reports/overton_window/ (the evidence)
3. Live exploration — Streamlit Explorer Overton tab + existing Kompas/Trajectories tabs (the data)

---

Completed

Core Analysis (U1-U5 from plan 001)

• Right-wing motion classification (2,986 → 3,030 classified)
• 1D extremity scoring (LLM, 2,986 motions)
• Sentiment analysis (LLM, 2,986 motions)
• Category derivation (7+13 categories)
• Temporal aggregation (yearly trends, 2016-2026)

Overton Window Analysis (plans 002-003)

• Centrist support breakpoint (strict 4-party: D66/CDA/CU/NSC)
• Opposition-only filtering (coalition control)
• Domain decomposition (migration vs non-migration)
• SVD spatial drift (Procrustes-aligned PCA)
• Content extremity trends (material impact declined, style rose)
• "Acceptance without conversion" confirmed
• Findings report written

2D Extremity Scoring (plan 004)

• Project-local skill: .opencode/skills/score-extremity/SKILL.md
• 2D scoring (stijl-extremiteit + materiele impact, 1-5)
• Pearson r = 0.47 (right-wing), r = 0.43 (all-motion) — dimensions separable
• All 29,591 motions scored via subagent pipeline
• 2D temporal decomposition (material fell, style rose — divergence confirmed)
• Gravity-controlled analysis (M≥4 centrist support shifted +0.263)

Gap Analysis & Extensions (plans 005-006)

• Quarterly temporal trajectory (33 quarters, inflection at 2024-Q2)
• Causal timing (electoral jump, not coalition-driven)
• Left-wing response (18.3× asymmetry, Volt exception)
• Mechanism classification (consensus framing confirmed, κ=0.41 moderate)
• Party differentiation (JA21 drives moderation, PVV entered government)
• Voting margin analysis (ρ=0.812, far superior to pass rate)
• Predictive model (AUC-ROC=0.81, RF=0.84)
• Coalition coding fix (2024 split at July 1)
• All-motion 2D extremity (29,591 motions, stijl=1.36, mat=2.12)
• HTML report with gravity-controlled charts + example motions

Code Quality

• Shared helpers extracted to analysis/right_wing/common.py
• requests.Timeout bug fixed
• p-value walrus operator fixed
• 35 tests for common.py (TDD)
• DROP TABLE bug fixed in classify_motions.py

Knowledge Capture

• Overton methodology documented (7-step, docs/solutions/best-practices/)
• Domain decomposition methodology documented
• Extended analysis methodology documented
• Large-scale subagent scoring methodology documented
• Narrative architecture documented

---

In Progress

Plan 007: Coherent Narrative (current)

• U1: Clean up stale reports (remove findings_report.md, blog_post.html)
• U1: Fix hashline corruption in synthesis report
• U1: Add cross-reference headers to all reports
• U1: Switch HTML report to strict 4-party centrist definition
• U2: Install Quarto CLI
• U2: Write Quarto narrative spine (8 sections, interactive Plotly)
• U3: Add Overton context panel to Explorer Kompas tab
• U3: Add 2024 breakpoint annotation to Trajectories tab
• U3: Create new Overton tab (centrist support trend, right-wing motion browser)
• U3: Wire Overton tab into Explorer
• U4: Write build_all_reports.py master script
• U5: Write reports/overton_window/README.md reading guide
• U5: Update project README.md

---

Deferred

Analysis Depth

• European comparison (AfD, Meloni, Le Pen, Sweden Democrats)
• Mechanism taxonomy revision (κ=0.41 → improve agreement)
• Forward-looking scenario analysis (permanent vs temporary shift)
• Anti-institutional pivot deep-dive (abolition → contestation)
• Re-populate category column in right_wing_motions (wiped by DROP TABLE)

Presentation

• Quarto blog post with interactive charts
• Table of contents / reading guide linking all 17 reports
• Single-script reproducible build with Quarto render

Infrastructure

• Agent-native architecture improvements (pipeline_run_stage, UI integration)
• CRUD completeness (delete_motion, mop up entity gaps)

---

Report Directory Map

reports/overton_window/
├── STATUS.md                              ← THIS FILE
├── README.md                              ← Reading guide (U5, pending)
├── overton_window.qmd                     ← Narrative spine (U2, pending)
├── _quarto.yml                            ← Quarto config (U2, pending)
│
├── overton_window_synthesis.md            ★ Master synthesis (291 lines)
├── overton_report.html                    ★ Public HTML dashboard
│
├── breakpoint_analysis.md                 Appendix: Centrist support breakpoint
├── breakpoint_figure_1.png                Fig: Centrist support over time
├── breakpoint_figure_2.png                Fig: Extremity-stratified
├── breakpoint_figure_3.png                Fig: Left-wing support
├── breakpoint_figure_4.png                Fig: Gravity-controlled CS
│
├── extremity_2d_temporal.md               Appendix: 2D extremity temporal
├── extremity_2d_temporal_figure.png       Fig: 4-panel 2D temporal
│
├── temporal_trajectory.md                 Appendix: Quarterly trajectory
├── temporal_trajectory_figure.png         Fig: 33-quarter trajectory
│
├── causal_timing.md                       Appendix: Causal attribution
├── causal_timing_figure.png              Fig: Pre/post event timing
│
├── svd_stability_report.md                Appendix: Procrustes SVD drift
├── svd_drift_chart.png                    Fig: 2D party compass
├── svd_trajectory_figure.png             Fig: Party trajectories
│
├── mechanism_classification.md            Appendix: Why motions gain support
├── mechanism_validation.md                Appendix: κ=0.41 validation
│
├── party_differentiation.md               Appendix: Per-party shifts
├── party_differentiation_figure.png       Fig: JA21/FVD/PVV/SGP comparison
│
├── left_wing_response.md                  Appendix: Left-wing voting
├── left_wing_response_figure.png          Fig: Left party support
│
├── voting_margin.md                       Appendix: Voting margin analysis
├── voting_margin_figure.png              Fig: Margin distribution
│
├── predictive_model.md                    Appendix: ML prediction
├── predictive_model_figure.png           Fig: Feature importance
│
├── success_correlation.md                 Appendix: Pass rate (ceiling)
│
├── 2d_extremity_correlation_report.md     Appendix: Full 29,591 correlation
│
├── findings_report.md                     ✗ REMOVED (superseded)
├── blog_post.html                         ✗ REMOVED (replaced by Quarto)

---

Data Sources

Table	Rows	Purpose
right_wing_motions	29,588	Classified right-wing motions with centrist support metrics
extremity_scores	2,986	Original 1D LLM scores (legacy)
extremity_scores_2d	3,089	2D scores for right-wing motions (active)
extremity_scores_all	29,591	2D scores for ALL motions (baseline)
sentiment_scores	2,986	Dutch sentiment scores (legacy)
motions	29,570+	Main motions table
mp_votes	—	Per-MP per-motion vote records
party_axis_scores	—	Procrustes-aligned PCA party positions
overton_svd_center	11	Yearly SVD centrist/right-wing centers

---

Key Numbers (canonical)

Metric	Pre-2024	Post-2024	Δ
Centrist support (strict 4-party)	0.251	0.507	+0.256
Opposition-only CS	0.270	0.543	+0.272
Material impact (right-wing)	2.79	2.45	−0.34
M≥4 share (% high-impact)	23.7%	11.3%	−12.4 pp
SVD cultural gap	0.282	0.428	+0.146
Stylistic extremity	1.718	1.815	+0.097
Migration CS	0.153	0.369	+0.216
All-motion stijl	—	1.36	—
All-motion materieel	—	2.12	—
Stijl-materieel r (RW)	—	0.47	—
Stijl-materieel r (all)	—	0.43	—
Voting margin ρ	—	0.812	—
Mechanism κ	—	0.41	—
AUC-ROC (logistic)	—	0.81	—
Inflection quarter	—	2024-Q2	—
Peak centrist support	—	0.648 (2024-Q4)	—
Latest (2026-Q1)	—	0.334	—

Verdict

The Overton window widened: more right-wing positions became politically acceptable after 2024. Centrist support for right-wing motions surged (25%→51%) while staying flat for left-wing motions (49%→49%). The mechanism was right-wing moderation, not centrist conversion — and the effect may be temporary (2026-Q1 reversion to 33%).