sgeboers
d05ec40584
- NSC sensitivity: only 3.1% of CS surge attributable to NSC inclusion - Submitter parsing: opposition-only d=0.85 likely inflated (~0.65-0.75) - Mechanism taxonomy: relabeled as exploratory (kappa=0.41, 50.5% agreement) - Causal claims: softened from 'refuted' to 'less consistent with data' - 2026 reversion: material moderation persisted but shock was primary driver - Placeholder contamination: r=0.43 drops to r=0.34 without 6K (1,1) defaults
Overton Window Analysis — Reading Guide
This directory contains the complete Overton window analysis: a quantitative investigation into whether the Dutch parliamentary center shifted rightward between 2016 and 2026.
Verdict: The Overton window widened: more right-wing positions became politically acceptable after 2024. Right-wing parties moderated toward it. The shift may be temporary.
Where to Start
-
Interactive Article — The narrative spine. 9 sections with interactive Plotly charts telling the story from question to answer. Render with
quarto render overton_window.qmd. -
Synthesis Report — The detailed synthesis of all indicators, uncertainty hierarchy, and the "acceptance through moderation" verdict.
-
HTML Dashboard — Standalone visual report with gravity-controlled charts, 2D extremity heatmap, and three example motions.
Live Exploration
Explore the data interactively in the Stemwijzer Explorer (uv run streamlit run Home.py):
- Overton tab — Centrist support trends, right-wing motion browser, summary statistics
- Kompas tab — SVD party positions (the axes behind the spatial divergence finding)
- Trajectories tab — Party drift over time (with 2024 breakpoint annotation)
- SVD Components tab — Which motions drive each ideological axis
Appendix Reports
Each report covers one analytical dimension:
| Report | What it answers |
|---|---|
| Breakpoint Analysis | When did centrist support surge? How much? |
| Temporal Trajectory | Quarterly resolution — was it gradual or sudden? |
| Causal Timing | Electoral jump vs coalition-driven? |
| SVD Drift | Did party positions converge or diverge? |
| 2D Extremity Temporal | Did motion content become more extreme? |
| 2D Correlation | Are style and substance independent? (r=0.43) |
| Party Differentiation | Which right-wing party drove the shift? (JA21) |
| Left-Wing Response | Did left parties harden opposition? |
| Mechanism Classification | How do right-wing motions gain centrist support? |
| Mechanism Validation | Inter-rater reliability (κ=0.41) |
| Voting Margin | Continuous margin vs binary pass/fail |
| Success Correlation | Do high-CS motions actually pass more? |
| Predictive Model | Can we predict centrist support? (AUC=0.81) |
Methodology
- 7-step methodology: docs/solutions/best-practices/overton-window-shift-methodology-2026-05-24.md
- Extended analysis: docs/solutions/best-practices/overton-extended-analysis-methodology-2026-05-26.md
- Domain decomposition: docs/solutions/best-practices/domain-decomposition-hidden-overton-variance-2026-05-25.md
Reproducibility
Regenerate all reports with:
uv run python analysis/right_wing/build_all_reports.py --skip-llm
Status
See STATUS.md for the complete analysis status, data sources, and canonical numbers.