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3.4 KiB
3.4 KiB
Right-Wing Party Differentiation
Goal: Break down right-wing motion metrics by party (PVV, FVD, JA21, SGP) to identify which party drives the moderation effect.
Analysis period: 2016–2026 Right-wing parties: FVD, JA21, PVV, SGP Data: 962 right-wing submitter motions with 2D extremity scores (from 2,850 classified right-wing motions total; 1,888 could not be parsed/party-matched).
1. Motion Volume by Party and Year
| Year | FVD | JA21 | PVV | SGP | Total RW |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2017 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2018 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019 | 9 | 0 | 41 | 20 | 70 |
| 2020 | 44 | 0 | 87 | 31 | 162 |
| 2021 | 23 | 17 | 70 | 35 | 145 |
| 2022 | 11 | 20 | 58 | 31 | 120 |
| 2023 | 13 | 20 | 52 | 27 | 112 |
| 2024 | 6 | 52 | 34 | 29 | 121 |
| 2025 | 21 | 54 | 54 | 21 | 150 |
| 2026 | 11 | 33 | 35 | 3 | 82 |
2. Centrist Support (Strict) by Party and Year
| Year | FVD | JA21 | PVV | SGP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2017 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2018 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2019 | 0.000 | N/A | 0.074 | 0.350 |
| 2020 | 0.057 | N/A | 0.052 | 0.387 |
| 2021 | 0.000 | 0.088 | 0.014 | 0.286 |
| 2022 | 0.000 | 0.050 | 0.043 | 0.242 |
| 2023 | 0.000 | 0.075 | 0.067 | 0.407 |
| 2024 | 0.056 | 0.212 | 0.314 | 0.506 |
| 2025 | 0.095 | 0.315 | 0.139 | 0.603 |
| 2026 | 0.000 | 0.300 | 0.086 | 0.167 |
3. Material Impact by Party and Year
| Year | FVD | JA21 | PVV | SGP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2017 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2018 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2019 | 3.56 | N/A | 3.34 | 2.65 |
| 2020 | 3.18 | N/A | 3.30 | 2.84 |
| 2021 | 2.96 | 3.41 | 3.23 | 2.91 |
| 2022 | 2.45 | 3.05 | 2.67 | 2.26 |
| 2023 | 2.92 | 3.85 | 3.25 | 2.74 |
| 2024 | 3.50 | 3.13 | 2.50 | 2.52 |
| 2025 | 3.00 | 2.44 | 2.50 | 2.10 |
| 2026 | 1.91 | 2.36 | 2.54 | 2.00 |
4. Pre/Post-2024 Comparison by Party
| Party | N Pre | N Post | CS Pre | CS Post | Delta CS | Mat. Pre | Mat. Post | Delta Mat. | Vol. Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FVD | 100 | 38 | 0.025 | 0.061 | +0.036 | 3.05 | 2.76 | -0.29 | -62 |
| JA21 | 57 | 139 | 0.070 | 0.273 | +0.203 | 3.44 | 2.68 | -0.76 | +82 |
| PVV | 308 | 123 | 0.047 | 0.172 | +0.125 | 3.16 | 2.51 | -0.65 | -185 |
| SGP | 144 | 53 | 0.330 | 0.525 | +0.195 | 2.69 | 2.32 | -0.37 | -91 |
5. Key Findings
Centrist support shift (largest to smallest):
- JA21: +0.203
- SGP: +0.195
- PVV: +0.125
- FVD: +0.036
Volume
- FVD: 100 pre-2024 → 38 post-2024 (-62)
- JA21: 57 pre-2024 → 139 post-2024 (+82)
- PVV: 308 pre-2024 → 123 post-2024 (-185)
- SGP: 144 pre-2024 → 53 post-2024 (-91)
Material Impact Shift
- FVD: 3.05 → 2.76 (-0.29)
- JA21: 3.44 → 2.68 (-0.76)
- PVV: 3.16 → 2.51 (-0.65)
- SGP: 2.69 → 2.32 (-0.37)
6. Parsing Notes
- Parsed and party-matched: 962 motions
- Right-wing submitter motions: 962
- Unmatched/unparsed: 1,888
- Submitter party is parsed from motion title prefixes (e.g. 'Motie van het lid Wilders ...').
- Multi-submitter motions use the first listed submitter.
- Party names are normalized via
_PARTY_NORMALIZE(e.g. Groep Markuszower → PVV).
7. Figure
