U1: JA21 drives moderation effect (+0.203 CS shift, only party with volume+support gains)
U2: Coalition coding split at July 2024 — opposition effect confirmed (d=0.85 vs 0.87)
U3: Voting margin (ρ=0.812 with centrist support) is far superior to pass rate
U4: SVD trajectory confirms spatial divergence — centrists moved left (Δx=-0.30), right stationary
U5: Mechanism classification Cohen's κ=0.41 (moderate) — taxonomy needs revision
U6: Predictive model AUC-ROC=0.81 — submitter party and category are strongest predictors
Sven Geboers