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115 lines
3.6 KiB
115 lines
3.6 KiB
# Right-Wing Party Differentiation
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> **Part of the Overton Window Analysis.** See the [synthesis report](overton_window_synthesis.md) for the integrated narrative, or the [interactive article](overton_window.qmd) for the full story with charts.
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**Goal:** Break down right-wing motion metrics by party (PVV, FVD, JA21, SGP)
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to identify which party drives the moderation effect.
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**Analysis period:** 2016–2026
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**Right-wing parties:** FVD, JA21, PVV, SGP
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**Data:** 1,018 right-wing submitter motions with 2D extremity scores
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(from 3,030 classified right-wing motions total; 2,012 could not be parsed/party-matched).
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---
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## 1. Motion Volume by Party and Year
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| Year | FVD | JA21 | PVV | SGP | Total RW |
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|------|---|----|---|---|----------|
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| 2016 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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| 2017 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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| 2018 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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| 2019 | 9 | 0 | 42 | 20 | 71 |
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| 2020 | 45 | 0 | 97 | 31 | 173 |
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| 2021 | 25 | 18 | 73 | 36 | 152 |
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| 2022 | 17 | 22 | 65 | 32 | 136 |
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| 2023 | 13 | 20 | 54 | 28 | 115 |
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| 2024 | 7 | 55 | 35 | 29 | 126 |
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| 2025 | 23 | 58 | 58 | 22 | 161 |
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| 2026 | 11 | 34 | 36 | 3 | 84 |
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---
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## 2. Centrist Support (Strict) by Party and Year
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| Year | FVD | JA21 | PVV | SGP |
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|------|---|----|---|---|
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| 2016 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
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| 2017 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
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| 2018 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
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| 2019 | 0.000 | N/A | 0.096 | 0.350 |
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| 2020 | 0.056 | N/A | 0.046 | 0.387 |
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| 2021 | 0.000 | 0.083 | 0.014 | 0.278 |
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| 2022 | 0.000 | 0.045 | 0.038 | 0.266 |
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| 2023 | 0.000 | 0.075 | 0.065 | 0.393 |
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| 2024 | 0.048 | 0.200 | 0.333 | 0.506 |
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| 2025 | 0.087 | 0.328 | 0.129 | 0.591 |
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| 2026 | 0.000 | 0.321 | 0.083 | 0.167 |
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---
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## 3. Material Impact by Party and Year
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| Year | FVD | JA21 | PVV | SGP |
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|------|---|----|---|---|
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| 2016 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
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| 2017 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
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| 2018 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
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| 2019 | 3.56 | N/A | 3.33 | 2.65 |
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| 2020 | 3.16 | N/A | 3.37 | 2.84 |
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| 2021 | 3.04 | 3.44 | 3.29 | 2.86 |
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| 2022 | 2.53 | 3.00 | 2.72 | 2.25 |
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| 2023 | 2.92 | 3.85 | 3.30 | 2.71 |
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| 2024 | 3.71 | 3.15 | 2.49 | 2.52 |
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| 2025 | 2.96 | 2.45 | 2.60 | 2.09 |
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| 2026 | 1.91 | 2.38 | 2.58 | 2.00 |
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---
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## 4. Pre/Post-2024 Comparison by Party
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| Party | N Pre | N Post | CS Pre | CS Post | Delta CS | Mat. Pre | Mat. Post | Delta Mat. | Vol. Delta |
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|-------|-------|--------|--------|---------|----------|----------|-----------|------------|------------|
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| FVD | 109 | 41 | 0.023 | 0.057 | +0.034 | 3.04 | 2.80 | -0.23 | -68 |
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| JA21 | 60 | 147 | 0.067 | 0.278 | +0.212 | 3.42 | 2.69 | -0.72 | +87 |
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| PVV | 331 | 129 | 0.047 | 0.172 | +0.125 | 3.21 | 2.57 | -0.64 | -202 |
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| SGP | 147 | 54 | 0.330 | 0.522 | +0.192 | 2.67 | 2.31 | -0.35 | -93 |
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---
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## 5. Key Findings
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**Centrist support shift (largest to smallest):**
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- **JA21**: +0.212
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- **SGP**: +0.192
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- **PVV**: +0.125
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- **FVD**: +0.034
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### Volume
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- **FVD**: 109 pre-2024 → 41 post-2024 (-68)
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- **JA21**: 60 pre-2024 → 147 post-2024 (+87)
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- **PVV**: 331 pre-2024 → 129 post-2024 (-202)
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- **SGP**: 147 pre-2024 → 54 post-2024 (-93)
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### Material Impact Shift
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- **FVD**: 3.04 → 2.80 (-0.23)
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- **JA21**: 3.42 → 2.69 (-0.72)
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- **PVV**: 3.21 → 2.57 (-0.64)
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- **SGP**: 2.67 → 2.31 (-0.35)
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---
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## 6. Parsing Notes
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- Parsed and party-matched: 1,018 motions
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- Right-wing submitter motions: 1,018
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- Unmatched/unparsed: 2,012
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- Submitter party is parsed from motion title prefixes (e.g. 'Motie van het lid Wilders ...').
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- Multi-submitter motions use the first listed submitter.
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- Party names are normalized via `_PARTY_NORMALIZE` (e.g. Groep Markuszower → PVV).
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---
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## 7. Figure
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