sgeboers
3192a1a2bf
CRIT-1: Stylistic extremity direction reversed — both dimensions declined (stijl 1.875→1.744, not increased +0.097). Holistic moderation, not divergence. CRIT-2: Masking rate corrected from 36.1% to 9.7% (S≤2, M≥4 on full dataset). Original 36.8% was from 117-motion manual audit, not extrapolatable. CRIT-3: Material impact values harmonized to motion-level means (2.79→2.45). Old values (2.78→2.43) used undisclosed mean-of-yearly-means aggregation. HIGH-1: Migration domain provenance caveat — category column is NULL, analysis relies on title keyword matching (approximate boundaries). HIGH-2: 2026-Q2 bounce caveat — n=44, bimodal distribution, sensitive to composition (many consensus defense motions among CS=1.0 items). HIGH-3: Non-right-wing control group corrected — CS rose 58%→62% (+3.5pp), not 'flat at 49%'. Surge was disproportionate for right-wing content. Also: fixed 6-party centrist definition (line 30) to 4-party, removed 'did not shift rightward' phrasing, added Phase 4 synthesis reminder to build_all_reports.py.
Overton Window Analysis — Reading Guide
This directory contains the complete Overton window analysis: a quantitative investigation into whether the Dutch parliamentary center shifted rightward between 2016 and 2026.
Verdict: The Overton window widened: more right-wing positions became politically acceptable after 2024. Right-wing parties moderated toward it. The shift may be temporary.
Where to Start
-
Interactive Article — The narrative spine. 9 sections with interactive Plotly charts telling the story from question to answer. Render with
quarto render overton_window.qmd. -
Synthesis Report — The detailed synthesis of all indicators, uncertainty hierarchy, and the "acceptance through moderation" verdict.
-
HTML Dashboard — Standalone visual report with gravity-controlled charts, 2D extremity heatmap, and three example motions.
Live Exploration
Explore the data interactively in the Stemwijzer Explorer (uv run streamlit run Home.py):
- Overton tab — Centrist support trends, right-wing motion browser, summary statistics
- Kompas tab — SVD party positions (the axes behind the spatial divergence finding)
- Trajectories tab — Party drift over time (with 2024 breakpoint annotation)
- SVD Components tab — Which motions drive each ideological axis
Appendix Reports
Each report covers one analytical dimension:
| Report | What it answers |
|---|---|
| Breakpoint Analysis | When did centrist support surge? How much? |
| Temporal Trajectory | Quarterly resolution — was it gradual or sudden? |
| Causal Timing | Electoral jump vs coalition-driven? |
| SVD Drift | Did party positions converge or diverge? |
| 2D Extremity Temporal | Did motion content become more extreme? |
| 2D Correlation | Are style and substance independent? (r=0.43) |
| Party Differentiation | Which right-wing party drove the shift? (JA21) |
| Left-Wing Response | Did left parties harden opposition? |
| Mechanism Classification | How do right-wing motions gain centrist support? |
| Mechanism Validation | Inter-rater reliability (κ=0.41) |
| Voting Margin | Continuous margin vs binary pass/fail |
| Success Correlation | Do high-CS motions actually pass more? |
| Predictive Model | Can we predict centrist support? (AUC=0.81) |
Methodology
- 7-step methodology: docs/solutions/best-practices/overton-window-shift-methodology-2026-05-24.md
- Extended analysis: docs/solutions/best-practices/overton-extended-analysis-methodology-2026-05-26.md
- Domain decomposition: docs/solutions/best-practices/domain-decomposition-hidden-overton-variance-2026-05-25.md
Reproducibility
Regenerate all reports with:
uv run python analysis/right_wing/build_all_reports.py --skip-llm
Status
See STATUS.md for the complete analysis status, data sources, and canonical numbers.