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motief/reports/drift/report.md

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Motion Semantic Drift Analysis Report

Windows analyzed: 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 Top N motions per axis: 20

Summary

  • Stable axes: [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10]
  • Axes with inflection points: 1
  • Parties with cross-ideological voting: 0

Axis Stability

Axis Stability Heatmap

Stable axes (similarity > 0.7): [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10] Reordered axes: [6] Unstable axes: []

Semantic Drift

Semantic Drift Timeline

Axis 8 Inflection Points

  • 2016 → 2017: drift=1.7467 (median=0.4850)
  • 2017 → 2018: drift=1.7470 (median=0.4850)

Party Voting Analysis

Parties tracked: 47

Party Trajectories

No cross-ideological voting detected.

Overtone Shift

Overtone shift measures how the semantic content of motions on each axis changes over time, even when party ordering stays the same.

Axis 1

  • Average shift: 1.4680
  • Max shift: 1.9709
  • Inflection points: 0

Axis 2

  • Average shift: 1.4220
  • Max shift: 1.7869
  • Inflection points: 0

Axis 3

  • Average shift: 1.3830
  • Max shift: 1.8293
  • Inflection points: 0

Axis 4

  • Average shift: 1.3946
  • Max shift: 1.8857
  • Inflection points: 0

Axis 5

  • Average shift: 1.4333
  • Max shift: 1.9253
  • Inflection points: 0

Axis 7

  • Average shift: 1.3068
  • Max shift: 1.8408
  • Inflection points: 0

Axis 8

  • Average shift: 1.3022
  • Max shift: 1.8897
  • Inflection points: 0

Axis 9

  • Average shift: 1.3751
  • Max shift: 1.9262
  • Inflection points: 0

Axis 10

  • Average shift: 1.2993
  • Max shift: 1.7220
  • Inflection points: 0

Methodology

  • Axis stability: Ridge regression weights (SVD_score ~ fused_embedding) per axis per window, compared via max(cosine similarity, Jaccard top-100 dimensions)

  • Overtone shift: Semantic gravity (weighted mean fused embedding) per axis per window, tracked via cosine distance between consecutive windows

  • Semantic drift: Cosine distance between fused embedding centroids of top-N motions per axis

  • Inflection points: Drift/shift rate exceeding 2× median rate

  • Cross-ideological voting: Parties voting 'voor' on motions where canonical opposite-wing parties have high loadings

  • Semantic drift: Cosine distance between fused embedding centroids of top-N motions per axis

  • Inflection points: Drift rate exceeding 2× median drift rate

  • Cross-ideological voting: Parties voting 'voor' on motions where canonical opposite-wing parties have high loadings