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146 lines
5.4 KiB
146 lines
5.4 KiB
# Mechanism Classification Report
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**Sample:** 200 motions (stratified: 50 pre-2024, 150 post-2024)
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**Classified:** 200 motions | **Unclassified:** 0
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## 1. Mechanism Distribution by Group
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### Pre-2024, High Centrist Support (CS > 0.5)
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| Mechanism | Count | Pct |
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|-----------|-------|-----|
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| Consensus framing (gedeeld belang) | 6 | 24.0% |
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| Institutioneel/rechtsstatelijk | 2 | 8.0% |
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| Welzijn/dienstverlening uitbreiding | 3 | 12.0% |
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| Procedureel/technisch | 11 | 44.0% |
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| Lokaal/regionaal | 0 | 0.0% |
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| Coalitie-afstemming | 0 | 0.0% |
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| Symbolisch/declaratoir | 0 | 0.0% |
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| Gerichte restrictie | 1 | 4.0% |
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| Systeemontmanteling | 0 | 0.0% |
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| Crisisrespons | 2 | 8.0% |
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| **Total** | **25** | **100%** |
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### Pre-2024, Low Centrist Support (CS <= 0.5)
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| Mechanism | Count | Pct |
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|-----------|-------|-----|
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| Consensus framing (gedeeld belang) | 1 | 4.0% |
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| Institutioneel/rechtsstatelijk | 0 | 0.0% |
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| Welzijn/dienstverlening uitbreiding | 2 | 8.0% |
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| Procedureel/technisch | 2 | 8.0% |
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| Lokaal/regionaal | 2 | 8.0% |
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| Coalitie-afstemming | 0 | 0.0% |
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| Symbolisch/declaratoir | 3 | 12.0% |
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| Gerichte restrictie | 6 | 24.0% |
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| Systeemontmanteling | 4 | 16.0% |
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| Crisisrespons | 5 | 20.0% |
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| **Total** | **25** | **100%** |
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### Post-2024, High Centrist Support (CS > 0.5)
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| Mechanism | Count | Pct |
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|-----------|-------|-----|
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| Consensus framing (gedeeld belang) | 18 | 24.0% |
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| Institutioneel/rechtsstatelijk | 7 | 9.3% |
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| Welzijn/dienstverlening uitbreiding | 3 | 4.0% |
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| Procedureel/technisch | 24 | 32.0% |
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| Lokaal/regionaal | 3 | 4.0% |
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| Coalitie-afstemming | 2 | 2.7% |
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| Symbolisch/declaratoir | 4 | 5.3% |
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| Gerichte restrictie | 13 | 17.3% |
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| Systeemontmanteling | 0 | 0.0% |
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| Crisisrespons | 1 | 1.3% |
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| **Total** | **75** | **100%** |
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### Post-2024, Low Centrist Support (CS <= 0.5)
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| Mechanism | Count | Pct |
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|-----------|-------|-----|
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| Consensus framing (gedeeld belang) | 6 | 8.0% |
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| Institutioneel/rechtsstatelijk | 19 | 25.3% |
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| Welzijn/dienstverlening uitbreiding | 1 | 1.3% |
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| Procedureel/technisch | 9 | 12.0% |
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| Lokaal/regionaal | 1 | 1.3% |
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| Coalitie-afstemming | 0 | 0.0% |
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| Symbolisch/declaratoir | 5 | 6.7% |
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| Gerichte restrictie | 21 | 28.0% |
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| Systeemontmanteling | 13 | 17.3% |
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| Crisisrespons | 0 | 0.0% |
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| **Total** | **75** | **100%** |
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## 2. Consolidated Pre vs Post-2024 Distribution
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| Mechanism | Pre-2024 | Pct Pre | Post-2024 | Pct Post |
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|-----------|----------|---------|-----------|----------|
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| Consensus framing (gedeeld belang) | 7 | 14.0% | 24 | 16.0% |
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| Institutioneel/rechtsstatelijk | 2 | 4.0% | 26 | 17.3% |
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| Welzijn/dienstverlening uitbreiding | 5 | 10.0% | 4 | 2.7% |
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| Procedureel/technisch | 13 | 26.0% | 33 | 22.0% |
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| Lokaal/regionaal | 2 | 4.0% | 4 | 2.7% |
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| Coalitie-afstemming | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 1.3% |
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| Symbolisch/declaratoir | 3 | 6.0% | 9 | 6.0% |
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| Gerichte restrictie | 7 | 14.0% | 34 | 22.7% |
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| Systeemontmanteling | 4 | 8.0% | 13 | 8.7% |
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| Crisisrespons | 7 | 14.0% | 1 | 0.7% |
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| **Total** | **50** | **100%** | **150** | **100%** |
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## 3. Consensus Framing Hypothesis Test
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**H0:** Consensus framing is equally common in high-support and low-support post-2024 motions.
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**H1:** Consensus framing is significantly more common in high-support post-2024 motions.
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- Consensus framing in post-2024 HIGH: 18/75 (24.0%)
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- Consensus framing in post-2024 LOW: 6/75 (8.0%)
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- χ²(1) = 6.002, p = 0.0143
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- **Result: Significant difference (p < 0.05). Consensus framing IS more common in high-support post-2024 motions.**
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- Consensus framing pre-2024: 7/50 (14.0%)
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- Consensus framing post-2024: 24/150 (16.0%)
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## 4. Chi-Squared Test: Period × Mechanism
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- χ²(9) = 28.550, p = 0.0008
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- Significant difference in mechanism distribution between pre and post-2024.
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## 5. Chi-Squared Test: Support Level × Mechanism (Post-2024)
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- χ²(9) = 38.350, p = 0.0000
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- Significant difference in mechanism distribution between high and low support post-2024 motions.
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## 6. Key Findings
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### Top 3 mechanisms in post-2024 HIGH-support motions:
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- Procedureel/technisch: 24 (32.0%)
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- Consensus framing (gedeeld belang): 18 (24.0%)
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- Gerichte restrictie: 13 (17.3%)
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### Top 3 mechanisms in post-2024 LOW-support motions:
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- Gerichte restrictie: 21 (28.0%)
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- Institutioneel/rechtsstatelijk: 19 (25.3%)
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- Systeemontmanteling: 13 (17.3%)
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### Mechanism shifts from pre to post-2024
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| Mechanism | Pre Pct | Post Pct | Δ |
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|-----------|---------|----------|---|
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| Consensus framing (gedeeld belang) | 14.0% | 16.0% | +2.0% |
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| Institutioneel/rechtsstatelijk | 4.0% | 17.3% | +13.3% |
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| Welzijn/dienstverlening uitbreiding | 10.0% | 2.7% | -7.3% |
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| Procedureel/technisch | 26.0% | 22.0% | -4.0% |
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| Lokaal/regionaal | 4.0% | 2.7% | -1.3% |
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| Coalitie-afstemming | 0.0% | 1.3% | +1.3% |
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| Symbolisch/declaratoir | 6.0% | 6.0% | +0.0% |
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| Gerichte restrictie | 14.0% | 22.7% | +8.7% |
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| Systeemontmanteling | 8.0% | 8.7% | +0.7% |
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| Crisisrespons | 14.0% | 0.7% | -13.3% |
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## 7. Conclusion
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The consensus framing hypothesis **is supported**: consensus framing motions are 24.0% of high-support post-2024 motions vs 8.0% of low-support post-2024 motions (χ² = 6.002, p = 0.0143).
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### Limitations
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- Sample: 200 motions (50 pre, 150 post) — may not capture rare mechanisms
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- Single-classifier: all motions classified by one subagent (inline), no inter-rater validation
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- Binary support threshold: CS > 0.5 vs <= 0.5 may oversimplify the support spectrum
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- Mechanism assignment: single primary mechanism per motion; some motions span multiple categories
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