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5.6 KiB
5.6 KiB
Mechanism Classification Report
Part of the Overton Window Analysis. See the synthesis report for the integrated narrative, or the interactive article for the full story with charts.
Sample: 200 motions (stratified: 50 pre-2024, 150 post-2024) Classified: 200 motions | Unclassified: 0
1. Mechanism Distribution by Group
Pre-2024, High Centrist Support (CS > 0.5)
| Mechanism | Count | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus framing (gedeeld belang) | 6 | 24.0% |
| Institutioneel/rechtsstatelijk | 2 | 8.0% |
| Welzijn/dienstverlening uitbreiding | 3 | 12.0% |
| Procedureel/technisch | 11 | 44.0% |
| Lokaal/regionaal | 0 | 0.0% |
| Coalitie-afstemming | 0 | 0.0% |
| Symbolisch/declaratoir | 0 | 0.0% |
| Gerichte restrictie | 1 | 4.0% |
| Systeemontmanteling | 0 | 0.0% |
| Crisisrespons | 2 | 8.0% |
| Total | 25 | 100% |
Pre-2024, Low Centrist Support (CS <= 0.5)
| Mechanism | Count | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus framing (gedeeld belang) | 1 | 4.0% |
| Institutioneel/rechtsstatelijk | 0 | 0.0% |
| Welzijn/dienstverlening uitbreiding | 2 | 8.0% |
| Procedureel/technisch | 2 | 8.0% |
| Lokaal/regionaal | 2 | 8.0% |
| Coalitie-afstemming | 0 | 0.0% |
| Symbolisch/declaratoir | 3 | 12.0% |
| Gerichte restrictie | 6 | 24.0% |
| Systeemontmanteling | 4 | 16.0% |
| Crisisrespons | 5 | 20.0% |
| Total | 25 | 100% |
Post-2024, High Centrist Support (CS > 0.5)
| Mechanism | Count | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus framing (gedeeld belang) | 18 | 24.0% |
| Institutioneel/rechtsstatelijk | 7 | 9.3% |
| Welzijn/dienstverlening uitbreiding | 3 | 4.0% |
| Procedureel/technisch | 24 | 32.0% |
| Lokaal/regionaal | 3 | 4.0% |
| Coalitie-afstemming | 2 | 2.7% |
| Symbolisch/declaratoir | 4 | 5.3% |
| Gerichte restrictie | 13 | 17.3% |
| Systeemontmanteling | 0 | 0.0% |
| Crisisrespons | 1 | 1.3% |
| Total | 75 | 100% |
Post-2024, Low Centrist Support (CS <= 0.5)
| Mechanism | Count | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus framing (gedeeld belang) | 6 | 8.0% |
| Institutioneel/rechtsstatelijk | 19 | 25.3% |
| Welzijn/dienstverlening uitbreiding | 1 | 1.3% |
| Procedureel/technisch | 9 | 12.0% |
| Lokaal/regionaal | 1 | 1.3% |
| Coalitie-afstemming | 0 | 0.0% |
| Symbolisch/declaratoir | 5 | 6.7% |
| Gerichte restrictie | 21 | 28.0% |
| Systeemontmanteling | 13 | 17.3% |
| Crisisrespons | 0 | 0.0% |
| Total | 75 | 100% |
2. Consolidated Pre vs Post-2024 Distribution
| Mechanism | Pre-2024 | Pct Pre | Post-2024 | Pct Post |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus framing (gedeeld belang) | 7 | 14.0% | 24 | 16.0% |
| Institutioneel/rechtsstatelijk | 2 | 4.0% | 26 | 17.3% |
| Welzijn/dienstverlening uitbreiding | 5 | 10.0% | 4 | 2.7% |
| Procedureel/technisch | 13 | 26.0% | 33 | 22.0% |
| Lokaal/regionaal | 2 | 4.0% | 4 | 2.7% |
| Coalitie-afstemming | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 1.3% |
| Symbolisch/declaratoir | 3 | 6.0% | 9 | 6.0% |
| Gerichte restrictie | 7 | 14.0% | 34 | 22.7% |
| Systeemontmanteling | 4 | 8.0% | 13 | 8.7% |
| Crisisrespons | 7 | 14.0% | 1 | 0.7% |
| Total | 50 | 100% | 150 | 100% |
3. Consensus Framing Hypothesis Test
H0: Consensus framing is equally common in high-support and low-support post-2024 motions. H1: Consensus framing is significantly more common in high-support post-2024 motions.
-
Consensus framing in post-2024 HIGH: 18/75 (24.0%)
-
Consensus framing in post-2024 LOW: 6/75 (8.0%)
-
χ²(1) = 6.002, p = 0.0143
-
Result: Significant difference (p < 0.05). Consensus framing IS more common in high-support post-2024 motions.
-
Consensus framing pre-2024: 7/50 (14.0%)
-
Consensus framing post-2024: 24/150 (16.0%)
4. Chi-Squared Test: Period × Mechanism
- χ²(9) = 28.550, p = 0.0008
- Significant difference in mechanism distribution between pre and post-2024.
5. Chi-Squared Test: Support Level × Mechanism (Post-2024)
- χ²(9) = 38.350, p = 0.0000
- Significant difference in mechanism distribution between high and low support post-2024 motions.
6. Key Findings
Top 3 mechanisms in post-2024 HIGH-support motions:
- Procedureel/technisch: 24 (32.0%)
- Consensus framing (gedeeld belang): 18 (24.0%)
- Gerichte restrictie: 13 (17.3%)
Top 3 mechanisms in post-2024 LOW-support motions:
- Gerichte restrictie: 21 (28.0%)
- Institutioneel/rechtsstatelijk: 19 (25.3%)
- Systeemontmanteling: 13 (17.3%)
Mechanism shifts from pre to post-2024
| Mechanism | Pre Pct | Post Pct | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus framing (gedeeld belang) | 14.0% | 16.0% | +2.0% |
| Institutioneel/rechtsstatelijk | 4.0% | 17.3% | +13.3% |
| Welzijn/dienstverlening uitbreiding | 10.0% | 2.7% | -7.3% |
| Procedureel/technisch | 26.0% | 22.0% | -4.0% |
| Lokaal/regionaal | 4.0% | 2.7% | -1.3% |
| Coalitie-afstemming | 0.0% | 1.3% | +1.3% |
| Symbolisch/declaratoir | 6.0% | 6.0% | +0.0% |
| Gerichte restrictie | 14.0% | 22.7% | +8.7% |
| Systeemontmanteling | 8.0% | 8.7% | +0.7% |
| Crisisrespons | 14.0% | 0.7% | -13.3% |
7. Conclusion
The consensus framing hypothesis is supported: consensus framing motions are 24.0% of high-support post-2024 motions vs 8.0% of low-support post-2024 motions (χ² = 6.002, p = 0.0143).
Limitations
- Sample: 200 motions (50 pre, 150 post) — may not capture rare mechanisms
- Single-classifier: all motions classified by one subagent (inline), no inter-rater validation
- Binary support threshold: CS > 0.5 vs <= 0.5 may oversimplify the support spectrum
- Mechanism assignment: single primary mechanism per motion; some motions span multiple categories