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motief/reports/overton_window/extremity_2d_temporal.md

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2D Extremity Temporal Decomposition

Goal: Test whether the "flat single-dimension trend" masks diverging trajectories when stylistic and material extremity scores are analyzed separately over time.

Analysis period: 2016-2026 Data source: extremity_scores_2d (2,869 motions scored) joined with right_wing_motions Domains: Migration = asiel/vreemdelingen; Non-migration = all other categories

*Years with <50 scored motions are flagged for low confidence.

1. Key Findings

Overall correlation r(stijl, materieel): 0.470 (p=0.000000) Migration domain r(stijl, materieel): 0.467 (p=0.000000, n=379) Non-migration domain r(stijl, materieel): 0.427 (p=0.000000, n=2471)

2. Pre/Post 2024 Comparison

Dimension Pre-2024 Mean Post-2024 Mean Δ
Stylistic extremity 1.718 1.815 0.097
Material impact 2.530 2.384 -0.146
Text score (original) 2.044 2.178 0.134
Gap (M-S) 0.813 0.570 -0.243

3. Yearly Data Table

Year N Stylistic Material Text (orig) Gap (M-S) N Mig Styl Mig Mat Mig N Non-Mig Styl NM Mat NM r(stijl,mat)
2016 * 6 1.667 2.333 2.000 0.667 0 N/A N/A 6 1.667 2.333 N/A
2017 * 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A N/A
2018 * 5 1.000 1.400 1.400 0.400 0 N/A N/A 5 1.000 1.400 N/A
2019 189 2.058 2.921 2.153 0.862 15 2.933 2.867 174 1.983 2.925 0.483
2020 446 2.231 2.899 2.213 0.668 45 3.267 3.378 401 2.115 2.845 0.608
2021 409 1.751 2.973 2.205 1.222 30 2.900 3.800 379 1.660 2.908 0.496
2022 412 1.769 2.507 2.121 0.738 71 2.225 3.042 341 1.674 2.396 0.440
2023 353 1.550 2.680 2.215 1.130 59 2.169 3.254 294 1.425 2.565 0.338
2024 455 1.686 2.578 1.974 0.892 55 2.545 3.091 400 1.567 2.507 0.385
2025 429 1.697 2.322 2.231 0.625 78 2.487 3.269 351 1.521 2.111 0.589
2026 146 2.062 2.253 2.329 0.192 26 2.500 2.769 120 1.967 2.142 0.410
  • Years with <50 scored motions; confidence intervals are wider or N/A.

4. Divergence Test (Wilcoxon Signed-Rank)

Test: wilcoxon_signed_rank

Statistic: 0.0

p-value: 0.001953125

N yearly pairs: 10

Conclusion: Significant divergence: material and stylistic yearly means differ (W=0.0, p=0.0020)

The Wilcoxon signed-rank test compares yearly mean stylistic vs yearly mean material scores. A significant result (p < 0.05) indicates the two dimensions systematically differ, meaning the flat single-dimension trend masks a genuine divergence between stylistic and material extremity.

5. Per-Year Correlation Analysis

Year r(stijl,mat) p N Domain
2016 N/A N/A 6 All
2017 N/A N/A 0 All
2018 N/A N/A 5 All
2019 0.483 0.000000 189 All
0.844 0.000077 15 Migration
0.471 0.000000 174 Non-migration
2020 0.608 0.000000 446 All
0.447 0.002064 45 Migration
0.610 0.000000 401 Non-migration
2021 0.496 0.000000 409 All
0.597 0.000501 30 Migration
0.446 0.000000 379 Non-migration
2022 0.440 0.000000 412 All
0.543 0.000001 71 Migration
0.344 0.000000 341 Non-migration
2023 0.338 0.000000 353 All
0.501 0.000052 59 Migration
0.222 0.000124 294 Non-migration
2024 0.385 0.000000 455 All
0.086 0.531026 55 Migration
0.376 0.000000 400 Non-migration
2025 0.589 0.000000 429 All
0.558 0.000000 78 Migration
0.445 0.000000 351 Non-migration
2026 0.410 0.000000 146 All
0.421 0.032410 26 Migration
0.317 0.000411 120 Non-migration

6. Correlation Change Pre vs Post 2024

Pre-2024 mean r(stijl,mat): 0.473

Post-2024 mean r(stijl,mat): 0.461

Change test (Mann-Whitney): U=9.000, p=0.786

Interpretation: No significant change in stijl-material correlation (U=9.0, p=0.7857)

A significant change in the per-year stijl-material correlation would suggest that the relationship between the two dimensions itself shifted across the break period — e.g., if right-wing parties post-2024 began moderating style while maintaining material impact, the correlation would decrease.

7. Gap Trajectory Interpretation

  • Pre-2024 mean gap: 0.813
  • Post-2024 mean gap: 0.570
  • Gap change: -0.243

A widening gap (increasing material > stylistic) would indicate that right-wing motions became less stylistically extreme but maintained or increased their material impact — consistent with the 'strategic moderation of rhetoric' hypothesis.

A narrowing gap would suggest that stylistic and material dimensions are converging, meaning the distinctions between the two become less meaningful over time.

A stable gap suggests the two dimensions move in parallel, and the flat single-dimension trend is an accurate summary (no masked divergence).

8. Domain Stratification

Domain Pre Mean Stijl Pre Mean Mat Post Mean Stijl Post Mean Mat Pre Gap Post Gap Pre r Post r
Migration 2.699 3.268 2.511 3.043 0.569 0.532 0.586 0.355
Non-migration 1.646 2.482 1.685 2.253 0.836 0.568 0.419 0.380

9. Figure

2D Extremity Temporal Figure

Figure panels:

  • Top panel: Yearly mean stylistic (red) and material (blue) extremity scores with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. Grey dashed line = original single-dimension text_score for comparison.
  • Middle panel: Gap trajectory (material minus stylistic) for all domains, migration, and non-migration. Positive gap = material impact exceeds stylistic extremity. A widening gap indicates increasing divergence between dimensions.
  • Bottom panel: Per-year Pearson correlation between stylistic and material scores. Declining correlation over time suggests the two dimensions are decoupling.

10. Limitations

  • Yearly resolution: Year-level aggregation necessarily smooths within-year trends. The quarterly framework from U1 provides finer resolution for other metrics.
  • Low-N years: Some years (especially 2016-2018 and 2026) have fewer than 50 scored motions, reducing confidence in those yearly means.
  • 2D scores are LLM-generated: The stijl_extremiteit and materiele_impact scores come from LLM-based assessment and may contain systematic biases.
  • Correlation vs causation: Per-year correlations describe association, not causation. A declining correlation could reflect scoring drift rather than genuine decoupling.
  • Domain imbalance: Migration-domain motions are a minority of all right-wing motions, so domain-stratified analyses have lower statistical power.

11. Conclusion

The overall stijl-materieel correlation is r=0.470 (p=0.000000), consistent with the aggregate finding of r≈0.47.

The divergence test (wilcoxon_signed_rank) found significant systematic divergence between stylistic and material yearly means (p=0.002).

The pre/post correlation change analysis no significant change in stijl-material correlation (u=9.0, p=0.7857).

The gap (material minus stylistic) narrowed from 0.813 pre-2024 to 0.570 post-2024.