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motief/reports/overton_window/extremity_2d_temporal.md

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2D Extremity Temporal Decomposition

Part of the Overton Window Analysis. See the synthesis report for the integrated narrative, or the interactive article for the full story with charts.

Goal: Test whether the "flat single-dimension trend" masks diverging trajectories when stylistic and material extremity scores are analyzed separately over time.

Analysis period: 2016-2026 Data source (right-wing): extremity_scores_2d (2,869 motions scored) joined with right_wing_motions Data source (all motions): extremity_scores_all (29,570 motions scored) joined with motions Domains: Migration = asiel/vreemdelingen; Non-migration = all other categories

*Years with <50 scored motions are flagged for low confidence.

1. Key Findings

Overall correlation r(stijl, materieel): 0.472 (p=0.000000) Migration domain r(stijl, materieel): N/A (p=N/A, n=0) Non-migration domain r(stijl, materieel): 0.472 (p=0.000000, n=3030)

2. Pre/Post 2024 Comparison

Dimension Pre-2024 Mean Post-2024 Mean Δ
Stylistic extremity 1.725 1.797 0.072
Material impact 2.535 2.440 -0.095
Text score (original) 2.063 2.190 0.127
Gap (M-S) 0.810 0.643 -0.167

3. Yearly Data Table

Year N Stylistic Material Text (orig) Gap (M-S) N Mig Styl Mig Mat Mig N Non-Mig Styl NM Mat NM r(stijl,mat)
2016 * 6 1.667 2.333 2.000 0.667 0 N/A N/A 6 1.667 2.333 N/A
2017 * 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A N/A
2018 * 5 1.000 1.400 1.400 0.400 0 N/A N/A 5 1.000 1.400 N/A
2019 195 2.046 2.913 2.138 0.867 0 N/A N/A 195 2.046 2.913 0.491
2020 469 2.228 2.906 2.262 0.678 0 N/A N/A 469 2.228 2.906 0.603
2021 425 1.755 2.976 2.240 1.221 0 N/A N/A 425 1.755 2.976 0.503
2022 446 1.800 2.525 2.161 0.724 0 N/A N/A 446 1.800 2.525 0.429
2023 365 1.575 2.690 2.238 1.115 0 N/A N/A 365 1.575 2.690 0.346
2024 469 1.680 2.582 1.985 0.902 0 N/A N/A 469 1.680 2.582 0.391
2025 455 1.695 2.332 2.253 0.637 0 N/A N/A 455 1.695 2.332 0.592
2026 195 2.015 2.405 2.331 0.390 0 N/A N/A 195 2.015 2.405 0.335
  • Years with <50 scored motions; confidence intervals are wider or N/A.

4. Divergence Test (Wilcoxon Signed-Rank)

Test: wilcoxon_signed_rank

Statistic: 0.0

p-value: 0.001953125

N yearly pairs: 10

Conclusion: Significant divergence: material and stylistic yearly means differ (W=0.0, p=0.0020)

The Wilcoxon signed-rank test compares yearly mean stylistic vs yearly mean material scores. A significant result (p < 0.05) indicates the two dimensions systematically differ, meaning the flat single-dimension trend masks a genuine divergence between stylistic and material extremity.

5. Per-Year Correlation Analysis

Year r(stijl,mat) p N Domain
2016 N/A N/A 6 All
2017 N/A N/A 0 All
2018 N/A N/A 5 All
2019 0.491 0.000000 195 All
0.491 0.000000 195 Non-migration
2020 0.603 0.000000 469 All
0.603 0.000000 469 Non-migration
2021 0.503 0.000000 425 All
0.503 0.000000 425 Non-migration
2022 0.429 0.000000 446 All
0.429 0.000000 446 Non-migration
2023 0.346 0.000000 365 All
0.346 0.000000 365 Non-migration
2024 0.391 0.000000 469 All
0.391 0.000000 469 Non-migration
2025 0.592 0.000000 455 All
0.592 0.000000 455 Non-migration
2026 0.335 0.000002 195 All
0.335 0.000002 195 Non-migration

6. Correlation Change Pre vs Post 2024

Pre-2024 mean r(stijl,mat): 0.475

Post-2024 mean r(stijl,mat): 0.439

Change test (Mann-Whitney): U=10.000, p=0.571

Interpretation: No significant change in stijl-material correlation (U=10.0, p=0.5714)

A significant change in the per-year stijl-material correlation would suggest that the relationship between the two dimensions itself shifted across the break period — e.g., if right-wing parties post-2024 began moderating style while maintaining material impact, the correlation would decrease.

7. Gap Trajectory Interpretation

  • Pre-2024 mean gap: 0.810
  • Post-2024 mean gap: 0.643
  • Gap change: -0.167

A widening gap (increasing material > stylistic) would indicate that right-wing motions became less stylistically extreme but maintained or increased their material impact — consistent with the 'strategic moderation of rhetoric' hypothesis.

A narrowing gap would suggest that stylistic and material dimensions are converging, meaning the distinctions between the two become less meaningful over time.

A stable gap suggests the two dimensions move in parallel, and the flat single-dimension trend is an accurate summary (no masked divergence).

8. Domain Stratification

Domain Pre Mean Stijl Pre Mean Mat Post Mean Stijl Post Mean Mat Pre Gap Post Gap Pre r Post r
Migration N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Non-migration 1.725 2.535 1.797 2.440 0.810 0.643 0.475 0.439

9. Gravity-Weighted Trends (Right-Wing)

Yearly means for right-wing motions filtered by material impact thresholds. M≥3 = motions with substantive material impact (score ≥ 3). M≥4 = motions with fundamental material impact (score ≥ 4).

Year N (all RW) M≥3 N M≥4 N Stijl (all) Stijl M≥3 Stijl M≥4 Mat (all) Mat M≥3 Mat M≥4
2016 6 2 1 1.667 3.000 3.000 2.333 3.500 4.000
2017 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2018 5 0 0 1.000 N/A N/A 1.400 N/A N/A
2019 195 125 49 2.046 2.344 2.755 2.913 3.480 4.224
2020 469 307 109 2.228 2.603 3.119 2.906 3.450 4.266
2021 425 270 143 1.755 1.978 2.364 2.976 3.670 4.266
2022 446 216 60 1.800 2.065 2.467 2.525 3.324 4.167
2023 365 188 96 1.575 1.787 2.052 2.690 3.601 4.177
2024 469 259 75 1.680 1.965 2.067 2.582 3.320 4.107
2025 455 157 45 1.695 2.287 2.911 2.332 3.369 4.289
2026 195 76 15 2.015 2.263 3.000 2.405 3.211 4.067
Bucket Pre-2024 Mean Stijl Pre-2024 Mean Mat Post-2024 Mean Stijl Post-2024 Mean Mat
All RW 1.725 2.535 1.797 2.440
M≥3 2.296 3.504 2.172 3.300
M≥4 2.626 4.183 2.659 4.154

10. Figure

2D Extremity Temporal Figure

Figure panels:

  • Top panel: Yearly mean stylistic (red) and material (blue) extremity scores with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. Grey dashed line = original single-dimension text_score for comparison. Gold/orange lines show material impact for M≥3 and M≥4 subsets.
  • Second panel: Gap trajectory (material minus stylistic) for all domains, migration, and non-migration. Positive gap = material impact exceeds stylistic extremity. A widening gap indicates increasing divergence between dimensions.
  • Third panel: Per-year Pearson correlation between stylistic and material scores. Declining correlation over time suggests the two dimensions are decoupling.
  • Fourth panel: All-motion (dashed) vs right-wing (solid) comparison for both stylistic and material dimensions. Shows how right-wing trends compare to the full motion landscape.

11. Limitations

  • Yearly resolution: Year-level aggregation necessarily smooths within-year trends. The quarterly framework from U1 provides finer resolution for other metrics.
  • Low-N years: Some years (especially 2016-2018 and 2026) have fewer than 50 scored motions, reducing confidence in those yearly means.
  • 2D scores are LLM-generated: The stijl_extremiteit and materiele_impact scores come from LLM-based assessment and may contain systematic biases.
  • Correlation vs causation: Per-year correlations describe association, not causation. A declining correlation could reflect scoring drift rather than genuine decoupling.
  • Domain imbalance: Migration-domain motions are a minority of all right-wing motions, so domain-stratified analyses have lower statistical power.

12. All-Motion Comparison

Yearly means for ALL motions (from extremity_scores_all) compared to right-wing-only means. This provides context for whether right-wing trends reflect party-specific dynamics or broader parliamentary trends.

Year N (all) All Stijl All Mat N (RW) RW Stijl RW Mat Diff Stijl Diff Mat
2016 162 1.037 1.796 6 1.667 2.333 0.630 0.537
2017 126 1.024 1.302 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
2018 124 1.000 1.540 5 1.000 1.400 0.000 -0.140
2019 3374 1.276 2.055 195 2.046 2.913 0.770 0.858
2020 4223 1.370 2.146 469 2.228 2.906 0.858 0.760
2021 4283 1.378 2.144 425 1.755 2.976 0.378 0.832
2022 4115 1.379 2.154 446 1.800 2.525 0.422 0.371
2023 3272 1.356 2.250 365 1.575 2.690 0.219 0.441
2024 3965 1.371 2.203 469 1.680 2.582 0.309 0.380
2025 3712 1.420 2.174 455 1.695 2.332 0.274 0.158
2026 2214 1.383 1.747 195 2.015 2.405 0.633 0.658
Period All Stijl All Mat RW Stijl RW Mat Stijl Δ Mat Δ
Pre-2024 1.227 1.923 1.725 2.535 0.497 0.612
Post-2024 1.391 2.041 1.797 2.440 0.405 0.399

13. Conclusion

The overall stijl-materieel correlation is r=0.472 (p=0.000000), consistent with the aggregate finding of r≈0.47.

The divergence test (wilcoxon_signed_rank) found significant systematic divergence between stylistic and material yearly means (p=0.002).

The pre/post correlation change analysis no significant change in stijl-material correlation (u=10.0, p=0.5714).

The gap (material minus stylistic) narrowed from 0.810 pre-2024 to 0.643 post-2024.