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60 lines
3.5 KiB
60 lines
3.5 KiB
# Overton Window Analysis — Reading Guide
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This directory contains the complete Overton window analysis: a quantitative investigation into whether the Dutch parliamentary center shifted rightward between 2016 and 2026.
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**Verdict:** The Overton window did not shift right. Right-wing parties moderated toward it. The shift may be temporary.
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## Where to Start
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1. **[Interactive Article](overton_window.qmd)** — The narrative spine. 9 sections with interactive Plotly charts telling the story from question to answer. Render with `quarto render overton_window.qmd`.
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2. **[Synthesis Report](overton_window_synthesis.md)** — The detailed synthesis of all indicators, uncertainty hierarchy, and the "acceptance through moderation" verdict.
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3. **[HTML Dashboard](overton_report.html)** — Standalone visual report with gravity-controlled charts, 2D extremity heatmap, and three example motions.
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## Live Exploration
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Explore the data interactively in the Stemwijzer Explorer (`uv run streamlit run Home.py`):
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- **Overton tab** — Centrist support trends, right-wing motion browser, summary statistics
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- **Kompas tab** — SVD party positions (the axes behind the spatial divergence finding)
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- **Trajectories tab** — Party drift over time (with 2024 breakpoint annotation)
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- **SVD Components tab** — Which motions drive each ideological axis
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## Appendix Reports
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Each report covers one analytical dimension:
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| Report | What it answers |
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|--------|----------------|
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| [Breakpoint Analysis](breakpoint_analysis.md) | When did centrist support surge? How much? |
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| [Temporal Trajectory](temporal_trajectory.md) | Quarterly resolution — was it gradual or sudden? |
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| [Causal Timing](causal_timing.md) | Electoral jump vs coalition-driven? |
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| [SVD Drift](svd_stability_report.md) | Did party positions converge or diverge? |
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| [2D Extremity Temporal](extremity_2d_temporal.md) | Did motion content become more extreme? |
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| [2D Correlation](2d_extremity_correlation_report.md) | Are style and substance independent? (r=0.43) |
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| [Party Differentiation](party_differentiation.md) | Which right-wing party drove the shift? (JA21) |
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| [Left-Wing Response](left_wing_response.md) | Did left parties harden opposition? |
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| [Mechanism Classification](mechanism_classification.md) | How do right-wing motions gain centrist support? |
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| [Mechanism Validation](mechanism_validation.md) | Inter-rater reliability (κ=0.41) |
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| [Voting Margin](voting_margin.md) | Continuous margin vs binary pass/fail |
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| [Success Correlation](success_correlation.md) | Do high-CS motions actually pass more? |
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| [Predictive Model](predictive_model.md) | Can we predict centrist support? (AUC=0.81) |
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## Methodology
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- **7-step methodology:** [docs/solutions/best-practices/overton-window-shift-methodology-2026-05-24.md](../../docs/solutions/best-practices/overton-window-shift-methodology-2026-05-24.md)
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- **Extended analysis:** [docs/solutions/best-practices/overton-extended-analysis-methodology-2026-05-26.md](../../docs/solutions/best-practices/overton-extended-analysis-methodology-2026-05-26.md)
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- **Domain decomposition:** [docs/solutions/best-practices/domain-decomposition-hidden-overton-variance-2026-05-25.md](../../docs/solutions/best-practices/domain-decomposition-hidden-overton-variance-2026-05-25.md)
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## Reproducibility
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Regenerate all reports with:
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```bash
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uv run python analysis/right_wing/build_all_reports.py --skip-llm
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```
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## Status
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See [STATUS.md](STATUS.md) for the complete analysis status, data sources, and canonical numbers.
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