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| title | date | module | problem_type | component | tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy Extremity vs Voting Extremity: Independent Phenomena | 2026-04-05 | analysis | research | motion-analysis | [polarization policy-extremity voting-extremity svd embedding-norm] |
Policy Extremity vs Voting Extremity: Independent Phenomena
Key Finding
Voting extremity (how divided parliament is) and policy extremity (how far motions are from political center) are independent phenomena with opposite trends:
| Measure | 2016 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voting Extremity | 0.70 | 0.46 | More divided |
| Policy Extremity | 9.0 | 4.2 | Less extreme |
Correlation: r = -0.011 (essentially zero)
Definitions
Voting Extremity
- Formula: margin / total votes
- Interpretation: How divided parliament is
- 1.0 = unanimous (all votes same direction)
- 0.0 = perfectly split (50-50)
- Trend: Increased (more close votes in recent years)
Policy Extremity
- Formula: L2 norm of SVD embedding vector
- Interpretation: How "far out" a motion is in political semantic space
- Trend: Decreased (motions closer to political center)
Analysis
Why Are They Independent?
- Voting extremity captures how parties divide on issues
- Policy extremity captures where motions sit in policy space
A motion can be:
- Near the center (low policy extremity) but divide parties 50-50 (high voting extremity)
- Far from center (high policy extremity) but pass unanimously (low voting extremity)
Historical Pattern
- 2016: Coalition passed "extreme" motions (legislative proposals) with consensus
- 2026: More divided votes on "moderate" motions (procedural/administrative)
Interpretation
The parliament has become more divided in how it votes, but the policies being passed are actually less extreme in semantic space.
This suggests:
- The polarization is about different issues dividing parties
- The "extremes" that pass are now closer to mainstream positions
- What changed is what divides parties, not how radical the policies are
Visualization
See docs/research/voting_vs_policy_extremity.png
Methodology
# Voting extremity = margin / total
voting_extremity = abs(votes_for - votes_against) / total_votes
# Policy extremity = L2 norm of SVD embedding
policy_extremity = np.linalg.norm(embedding_vector)
Conclusion
These findings confirm that voting extremity ≠ policy extremity. They capture different aspects of parliamentary behavior and should be analyzed separately.
The increase in voting extremity reflects genuine polarization in parliamentary divisions. But the decrease in policy extremity suggests that the policies actually being passed are not more radical—they're just more contested.