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68 lines
3.3 KiB
68 lines
3.3 KiB
# Semantic Content Shift: Axis 1 Over Time
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## What Changed: "Coalition vs Opposition" Axis Content
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| Year | Positive Pole (Coalition) | Negative Pole (Opposition) | Key Theme |
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|------|-------------------------|---------------------------|-----------|
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| **2016** | Tax law changes, international treaties | — | Administrative law |
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| **2018** | Budget modifications, infrastructure, social affairs | — | Government spending |
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| **2019** | Working conditions, monitoring issues | — | Administrative oversight |
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| **2022** | Local government info, digital accounts | Digital governance, privacy | Digital transformation |
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| **2023** | Welfare policy, parental support | Social services | Social policy |
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| **2024** | Nuclear weapons, housing, Israel boycott | — | Foreign policy / Justice |
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| **2025** | EU sanctions on Israel, asylum policies | — | Migration / Foreign affairs |
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| **2026** | **Asylum stops**, Syrian permit revocations, Ukraine returns | IND backlog | **Migration dominates** |
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## Key Observations
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### 1. The "Coalition" Side Evolved Significantly
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| Period | Coalition Motions Focused On |
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|--------|---------------------------|
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| 2016-2019 | Administrative law, tax, budgets, infrastructure |
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| 2022-2023 | Digital governance, welfare, social services |
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| 2024-2025 | Foreign policy (Israel sanctions), migration |
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| **2026** | **Asylum restriction**, Syria, Ukraine returns |
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### 2. Axis 1 Became Migration-Centric by 2026
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In 2026, the **extreme positive motions** are ALL about asylum/migration:
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- "Motie van het lid Vondeling over een totale asielstop" (total asylum stop)
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- "Motie van het lid Vondeling over alle tijdelijke asielvergunningen van Syriërs intrekken" (revoke Syrian permits)
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- "Motie van het lid Vondeling over een actief terugkeerbeleid voor alle Oekraïners" (active return policy for Ukrainians)
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This suggests the coalition/opposition dynamic in 2026 is increasingly defined by **migration policy** rather than the traditional left-right economic divide.
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### 3. The "Typical" Motion Changed
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Semantic gravity represents the "typical" motion on the axis. Its content shifted:
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| Year | Typical Motion Theme |
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|------|---------------------|
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| 2016 | Tax law, health law, financial administration |
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| 2019 | Bureaucracy reduction, Kamer control, administrative burden |
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| 2023 | Student finance, volunteer work, housing |
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| 2024 | Fossil fuel phase-out, whistleblower protection, youth care |
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| 2026 | Asylum, IND backlog, Ukraine, social grievances |
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## Implications
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1. **Axis label is temporally bounded**: "Rechts kabinetsbeleid versus links oppositiebeleid" works for 2016-2026 as a whole, but in 2026 it's increasingly about migration policy.
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2. **Party voting structure is stable** (0.83 stability), but **what parties vote on** has shifted from economics to migration.
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3. **Axis 6 (Migration/Culture)** low stability (0.35) may now be overlapping with Axis 1 — migration has become a coalition-defining issue.
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## Example: Concrete Before/After
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**2016 - "Coalition" side:**
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> "Wijziging van enkele belastingwetten en enige andere wetten (Fiscale vereenvoudigingswet 2017)"
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**2026 - "Coalition" side:**
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> "Motie van het lid Vondeling over een totale asielstop"
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Same axis (coalition votes FOR), but semantically completely different topics.
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---
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*Generated by `scripts/semantic_gravity_examples.py`*
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