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64 lines
3.4 KiB
64 lines
3.4 KiB
---
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module: analysis/right_wing
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problem_type: best-practice
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date: 2026-05-25
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tags:
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- overton-window
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- domain-decomposition
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- mp-level-analysis
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- party-disaggregation
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- migration-policy
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- centrist-voting
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category: best-practices
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---
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# Domain Decomposition Reveals Hidden Variance in Overton Window Analysis
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## Context
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Aggregate centrist support for right-wing motions surged post-2024 (d=+0.65). But the aggregate masked two distinct stories: one of strategic moderation (85% of motions, non-migration domains) and one of genuine acceptance expansion (15%, migration domain). Without domain decomposition, the analysis would incorrectly claim either "no shift" or "complete shift" when both processes occurred simultaneously.
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## Guidance
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**Always decompose political shift analyses by policy domain before drawing conclusions.** The aggregate number answers a different question than each domain-specific signal.
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**What to check per domain:**
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1. **Volume change:** Did motion count increase or decrease?
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2. **Material impact change:** Did the policy substance intensify or moderate?
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3. **Centrist support change:** Did centrist parties accept more of these motions?
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4. **MP-level disaggregation:** Which specific centrist parties drive the shift?
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**The migration exception (2024 Dutch parliament):**
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- Material impact barely changed (3.26→3.13)
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- Yet centrist support more than doubled (0.153→0.369)
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- M=5 support went from 0.000 to 0.185
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- This is the one domain where acceptance genuinely expanded
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**All other domains (climate, nitrogen, economy, defense, etc.):**
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- Material impact significantly declined (2.72→2.30)
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- High-impact share collapsed (20.8%→8.0%)
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- M=5 motions: pre-2024 "exit Paris accord" (CS=0.0), post-2024 "build nuclear plants" (CS=1.0)
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- Strategic moderation explains the shift
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**Party-level disaggregation:**
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- CDA and ChristenUnie (Christian-conservative centrists) more than doubled migration vote share
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- D66 (secular-progressive) barely moved from single digits
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- The shift is not "centrists" generally — it's a specific faction within the center
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## Why This Matters
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Without domain decomposition, an analyst would report "centrist support for right-wing motions increased" and either: (a) claim the Overton window shifted right (wrong — 85% of motions show content moderation, not acceptance expansion), or (b) claim the Overton window didn't shift (wrong — migration is the 15% where it demonstrably did). Domain decomposition prevents both errors and reveals the more honest picture: strategic moderation was the dominant mechanism, with migration as the sole measurable exception.
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## When to Apply
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- Before drawing conclusions from aggregate voting trend data
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- When policy domains have different baseline extremity levels (migration already had M=5 motions; climate gained them post-Ukraine energy crisis)
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- When centrist parties are ideologically heterogeneous (Christian-democrats ≠ progressive-liberals)
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- When the target audience is academic or policy-oriented and will spot domain conflation
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## Examples
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**Bad:** "Centrist support for right-wing motions surged from 0.25 to 0.51 — the Overton window shifted."
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**Good:** "Centrist support for right-wing motions surged from 0.25 to 0.51. Domain decomposition reveals two mechanisms: strategic moderation across 85% of motions (content became milder, centrists rewarded moderation), and genuine acceptance expansion in the migration domain (content impact stable, centrist support doubled)."
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