Commit Graph
3 Commits
Author SHA1 Message Date
sgeboers f7d806dc3a fix(analysis): add Procrustes alignment and normalize vectors for drift computation
SVD sign/rotation is arbitrary per window. Without alignment, drift was
dominated by basis flips (~1.9/step max=2.0) rather than real political movement.

- _procrustes_align_windows(): aligns each window to the previous using
  orthogonal Procrustes on common entities (scipy, falls back gracefully)
- compute_trajectories(): builds aligned window dict before per-MP drift calc,
  adds normalize=True (L2-normalise) to remove cross-window magnitude differences
  caused by varying numbers of motions per quarter
- Results now in sensible range: NSC=2.28, DENK=1.90, ... PVV=0.82, FVD=0.70
- NSC large late jump (1.39 in Q4→Q1 2026) matches its parliamentary fracture
- Add outputs/trajectories_party_aligned.html with cleaned-up drift chart
2026-03-21 23:37:20 +01:00
sgeboers aa2f66ac9f feat(analysis): fetch real MP metadata, fix anchor axis for party-level actors
- fetch_mp_metadata: use real OData URL with pagination (1200 records, 5 pages)
  uses Fractie.Afkorting not NaamNL for abbreviation matching
  skips Verwijderd=true records
- upsert_mp_metadata: keep most recent membership (prefer active over ended,
  then higher Van date) so current party affiliations are not overwritten by historical
- compute_anchor_axis: anchor directly on party-level SVD entities (GroenLinks-PvdA etc)
  before falling back to mp_metadata individual MP lookup
- test_fetch_mp_metadata: fix mock for timeout kwarg + pagination + Afkorting field
- Generated anchor axis HTML for 2025-Q2 through 2026-Q1 in outputs/
2026-03-21 23:33:47 +01:00
sgeboers 5ad83ef1be fix(tests): update test_extract_mp_votes for party-level actor inclusion
New extract_mp_votes behavior inserts all actors (party + individual MPs),
not only comma-name MPs. Test now validates both types and their party column.
Also adds generated HTML visualizations (political axis x5 windows + trajectories).
2026-03-21 23:25:27 +01:00