fix(analysis): add Procrustes alignment and normalize vectors for drift computation

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SVD sign/rotation is arbitrary per window. Without alignment, drift was
dominated by basis flips (~1.9/step max=2.0) rather than real political movement.

- _procrustes_align_windows(): aligns each window to the previous using
  orthogonal Procrustes on common entities (scipy, falls back gracefully)
- compute_trajectories(): builds aligned window dict before per-MP drift calc,
  adds normalize=True (L2-normalise) to remove cross-window magnitude differences
  caused by varying numbers of motions per quarter
- Results now in sensible range: NSC=2.28, DENK=1.90, ... PVV=0.82, FVD=0.70
- NSC large late jump (1.39 in Q4→Q1 2026) matches its parliamentary fracture
- Add outputs/trajectories_party_aligned.html with cleaned-up drift chart

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This commit is contained in:

sgeboers

2026-03-21 23:37:20 +01:00

parent aa2f66ac9f

commit f7d806dc3a

3 changed files with 112 additions and 8 deletions

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outputs/trajectories_normalized_top15.html

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outputs/trajectories_party_aligned.html

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