docs(report): add mechanism analysis findings

- Classified 24 post-2024 right-wing motions with CS>=0.5
- Dominant mechanisms: consensus framing (33%), institutional (21%), welfare (17%)
- Only 1 targeted restriction, zero system dismantling
- Right-wing gains centrist support through repackaging, not conversion
- Confirms acceptance-without-conversion dynamic at the mechanism level

reports/overton_window/findings_report.md

@@ -122,6 +122,23 @@ This pattern — greater political support combined with greater ideological dis
 
 **Acceptance without conversion.** SVD shows centrists moved LEFT on both axes while cultural polarization GREW (+0.146). This is not contradictory to the centrist support surge — it means the Overton window widened without centrist parties converging toward right-wing positions. Right-wing motions became more acceptable to centrists not because centrists changed ideology, but because the boundary of "acceptable" policy expanded. Centrist parties accept motions they previously opposed while their own voting patterns remain stable or drift leftward.
 
+**Mechanism analysis** of the 24 right-wing motions with highest centrist support post-2024 reveals HOW right-wing motions gain centrist backing without ideological conversion:
+
+| Mechanism | Count | % |
+|-----------|-------|---|
+| Consensus framing (shared values: safety, efficiency, pragmatism) | 8 | 33% |
+| Institutional/rule-of-law (oversight, transparency, anti-corruption) | 5 | 21% |
+| Welfare/service expansion (protect vulnerable groups) | 4 | 17% |
+| Procedural/technical | 3 | 13% |
+| Local/constituency | 1 | 4% |
+| Coalition alignment | 1 | 4% |
+| Symbolic/declaratory | 1 | 4% |
+| Targeted restriction | 1 | 4% |
+| System dismantling | 0 | 0% |
+| Crisis response | 0 | 0% |
+
+**Key finding:** The dominant pathway is *consensus framing* — right-wing motions package their requests in widely-shared values (public safety, economic competitiveness, energy transition pragmatism) stripping away partisan markers. Institutional/rule-of-law framing comes second: motions strengthening oversight or legal frameworks make centrist opposition untenable since these parties stake their identity on good governance. Critically, only 1 motion involves targeted rights restriction and **zero involve system dismantling** — the truly ideological right-wing agenda (asylum stops, treaty exits, fundamental institutional upheaval) does not gain centrist support. Right-wing influence flows not through conversion but through repackaging: speaking in vocabulary centrists already accept.
+
 ### Tier 3 — Weak/noisy (updated with 2D findings)
 
 Content extremity trend is flat (d=−0.09), but LLM scores have known biases: 75% audit agreement, systematic overrating of anti-institutional language and migration-adjacent content. **Two-dimensional rescoring completed (n=117, stratified):** Pearson r=0.45 between stylistic extremity and material impact — moderate, confirming the dimensions are separable. Material impact averages 0.85 points above stylistic (2.86 vs. 2.01), with 36.8% of motions using restrained language to mask high-impact policies. The original single-score LLM conflated inflammatory phrasing with substantive policy effect, explaining ~25% of the audit disagreement. A flat single-dimension trend may reflect this conflation rather than genuine content stability.
@@ -165,4 +182,4 @@ Content extremity trend is flat (d=−0.09), but LLM scores have known biases: 7
 
 2. **Temporal decomposition (quarterly analysis):** Disentangle topic composition from ideological drift. The 2024 shift may be partially explained by increased volume of migration motions or seasonal effects lost in annual aggregation.
 
-3. **Mechanism analysis:** What specific types of right-wing motions gained centrist support post-2024? Identify motion categories, framing patterns, and submitter strategies that drove the acceptance-without-conversion dynamic. **IN PROGRESS:** Sampled 24 post-2024 motions with CS≥0.5 across 12 categories for subagent classification.
+3. **Mechanism analysis:** **DONE.** 24 post-2024 high-centrist-support motions classified across 10 mechanism types. Dominant pathways: consensus framing (33%), institutional/rule-of-law (21%), welfare/service expansion (17%). Targeted restrictions and system dismantling near zero — right-wing gains centrist support by repackaging in centrist-friendly language, not by converting centrists.