chore: simplify Overton scripts, update README, add stemwijzer.db to gitignore

- Extracted EXTREMITY_BUCKET_ORDER constant and _extremity_bucket() helper (4 duplications removed)
- Merged two-pass query loop in compute_yearly_baseline into single pass
- Removed unused import (mticker), dead code (year_titles_map), 12 obvious comments
- Extracted _fmt_axis() helper in SVD drift script
- Updated README analysis/ description to include right-wing motion analysis
main
Sven Geboers 4 weeks ago
parent 7b5f97e177
commit 711a410df3
  1. 2
      .gitignore
  2. 2
      README.md
  3. 83
      analysis/right_wing/overton_breakpoint_analysis.py
  4. 32
      analysis/right_wing/overton_svd_drift.py
  5. 447
      docs/plans/2026-05-05-001-feat-right-wing-motion-analysis-plan.md
  6. 212
      docs/solutions/workflow-issues/parallel-api-batching-ai-summarization-2026-05-05.md
  7. BIN
      reports/overton_window/breakpoint_figure_2.png

2
.gitignore vendored

@ -33,3 +33,5 @@ thoughts/explorer/*_report.md
# Compound Engineering local config # Compound Engineering local config
.compound-engineering/*.local.yaml .compound-engineering/*.local.yaml
Backfill data
stemwijzer.db

@ -51,7 +51,7 @@ The app will be available at http://localhost:8501.
├── api_client.py # Tweede Kamer OData API client ├── api_client.py # Tweede Kamer OData API client
├── explorer.py # Explorer page with SVD visualizations ├── explorer.py # Explorer page with SVD visualizations
├── pipeline/ # Data ingestion and analysis pipelines ├── pipeline/ # Data ingestion and analysis pipelines
├── analysis/ # SVD, clustering, trajectory modules ├── analysis/ # SVD, clustering, trajectory, right-wing motion analysis
├── tests/ # pytest test suite ├── tests/ # pytest test suite
├── docs/ # Documentation, research, and plans ├── docs/ # Documentation, research, and plans
└── data/motions.db # DuckDB database (~18 GB) └── data/motions.db # DuckDB database (~18 GB)

@ -30,12 +30,6 @@ import numpy as np
matplotlib.use("Agg") matplotlib.use("Agg")
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import matplotlib.ticker as mticker
ROOT = Path(__file__).parent.parent.parent.resolve()
if str(ROOT) not in sys.path:
sys.path.insert(0, str(ROOT))
from analysis.config import CANONICAL_LEFT, CANONICAL_RIGHT, PARTY_COLOURS from analysis.config import CANONICAL_LEFT, CANONICAL_RIGHT, PARTY_COLOURS
CANONICAL_CENTRIST = frozenset({"VVD", "D66", "CDA", "NSC", "BBB", "CU"}) CANONICAL_CENTRIST = frozenset({"VVD", "D66", "CDA", "NSC", "BBB", "CU"})
@ -47,7 +41,20 @@ DB_PATH = str(ROOT / "data" / "motions.db")
REPORTS_DIR = ROOT / "reports" / "overton_window" REPORTS_DIR = ROOT / "reports" / "overton_window"
REPORTS_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) REPORTS_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
CANONICAL_CENTRIST_SET = set(CANONICAL_CENTRIST) # nb: config defines as frozenset CANONICAL_CENTRIST_SET = set(CANONICAL_CENTRIST)
EXTREMITY_BUCKET_ORDER = ["1-2 (mild)", "2-3 (moderate)", "3-4 (high)", "4-5 (extreme)"]
def _extremity_bucket(score: float) -> str:
if score < 2:
return "1-2 (mild)"
elif score < 3:
return "2-3 (moderate)"
elif score < 4:
return "3-4 (high)"
else:
return "4-5 (extreme)"
CANONICAL_LEFT_SET = set(CANONICAL_LEFT) CANONICAL_LEFT_SET = set(CANONICAL_LEFT)
CANONICAL_RIGHT_SET = set(CANONICAL_RIGHT) CANONICAL_RIGHT_SET = set(CANONICAL_RIGHT)
@ -172,6 +179,7 @@ def compute_yearly_baseline(con: duckdb.DuckDBPyConnection) -> dict[int, dict]:
""").fetchall() """).fetchall()
motion_party_votes: dict[int, dict[str, dict[str, int]]] = {} motion_party_votes: dict[int, dict[str, dict[str, int]]] = {}
motion_year_map: dict[int, int] = {}
for mid, year, party, n, vote in centrist_rows: for mid, year, party, n, vote in centrist_rows:
year = int(year) year = int(year)
if year < YEAR_MIN or year > YEAR_MAX: if year < YEAR_MIN or year > YEAR_MAX:
@ -179,12 +187,7 @@ def compute_yearly_baseline(con: duckdb.DuckDBPyConnection) -> dict[int, dict]:
mv = motion_party_votes.setdefault(mid, {}) mv = motion_party_votes.setdefault(mid, {})
pv = mv.setdefault(party, {"voor": 0, "tegen": 0, "afwezig": 0}) pv = mv.setdefault(party, {"voor": 0, "tegen": 0, "afwezig": 0})
pv[vote] = pv.get(vote, 0) + n pv[vote] = pv.get(vote, 0) + n
motion_year_map[mid] = year
motion_year_map: dict[int, int] = {}
for mid, year, _, _, _ in centrist_rows:
year = int(year)
if YEAR_MIN <= year <= YEAR_MAX:
motion_year_map[mid] = year
for mid, votes in motion_party_votes.items(): for mid, votes in motion_party_votes.items():
year = motion_year_map.get(mid) year = motion_year_map.get(mid)
@ -297,10 +300,6 @@ def compute_opposition_metrics(
coalition = COALITION coalition = COALITION
year_titles_map: dict[int, list[int]] = {}
for year, d in yearly_raw.items():
year_titles_map[year] = list(range(len(d["titles"])))
for year, d in yearly_raw.items(): for year, d in yearly_raw.items():
coal = coalition.get(year, set()) coal = coalition.get(year, set())
for idx in range(len(d["titles"])): for idx in range(len(d["titles"])):
@ -348,16 +347,9 @@ def compute_extremity_stratified(
yearly_raw: dict[int, dict], yearly_raw: dict[int, dict],
) -> dict[str, dict[str, list]]: ) -> dict[str, dict[str, list]]:
"""Compute centrist_support per extremity bucket, pre vs post 2024.""" """Compute centrist_support per extremity bucket, pre vs post 2024."""
buckets = {
"1-2 (mild)": [],
"2-3 (moderate)": [],
"3-4 (high)": [],
"4-5 (extreme)": [],
}
pre_post: dict[str, dict[str, list]] = { pre_post: dict[str, dict[str, list]] = {
"pre-2024": {b: [] for b in buckets}, "pre-2024": {b: [] for b in EXTREMITY_BUCKET_ORDER},
"post-2024": {b: [] for b in buckets}, "post-2024": {b: [] for b in EXTREMITY_BUCKET_ORDER},
} }
for year, d in yearly_raw.items(): for year, d in yearly_raw.items():
@ -367,15 +359,7 @@ def compute_extremity_stratified(
cs = d["centrist_support_strict"][idx] cs = d["centrist_support_strict"][idx]
if np.isnan(ext) or cs is None or (isinstance(cs, float) and np.isnan(cs)): if np.isnan(ext) or cs is None or (isinstance(cs, float) and np.isnan(cs)):
continue continue
if ext < 2: pre_post[period][_extremity_bucket(ext)].append(cs)
b = "1-2 (mild)"
elif ext < 3:
b = "2-3 (moderate)"
elif ext < 4:
b = "3-4 (high)"
else:
b = "4-5 (extreme)"
pre_post[period][b].append(cs)
return pre_post return pre_post
@ -413,12 +397,7 @@ def yearly_summary(yearly: dict[int, dict]) -> dict[int, dict]:
def sample_audit(yearly_raw: dict[int, dict]) -> list[dict]: def sample_audit(yearly_raw: dict[int, dict]) -> list[dict]:
"""Stratified random sample: 5 motions per extremity bucket, 20 total.""" """Stratified random sample: 5 motions per extremity bucket, 20 total."""
bucket_motions: dict[str, list[int]] = { bucket_motions: dict[str, list[int]] = {b: [] for b in EXTREMITY_BUCKET_ORDER}
"1-2 (mild)": [],
"2-3 (moderate)": [],
"3-4 (high)": [],
"4-5 (extreme)": [],
}
all_motions: list[dict] = [] all_motions: list[dict] = []
for year, d in yearly_raw.items(): for year, d in yearly_raw.items():
@ -426,14 +405,7 @@ def sample_audit(yearly_raw: dict[int, dict]) -> list[dict]:
ext = d["extremity"][idx] ext = d["extremity"][idx]
if np.isnan(ext): if np.isnan(ext):
continue continue
if ext < 2: b = _extremity_bucket(ext)
b = "1-2 (mild)"
elif ext < 3:
b = "2-3 (moderate)"
elif ext < 4:
b = "3-4 (high)"
else:
b = "4-5 (extreme)"
bucket_motions[b].append(len(all_motions)) bucket_motions[b].append(len(all_motions))
all_motions.append({ all_motions.append({
"year": year, "year": year,
@ -565,7 +537,6 @@ def create_figure_2(
fig, (ax1, ax2) = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(14, 6)) fig, (ax1, ax2) = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(14, 6))
# Panel C: Mean extremity over time
ax1.plot(years_arr, _vals(yearly_sum, "mean_extremity"), ax1.plot(years_arr, _vals(yearly_sum, "mean_extremity"),
marker="o", color=colour_rw, linewidth=2, label="All right-wing", zorder=5) marker="o", color=colour_rw, linewidth=2, label="All right-wing", zorder=5)
ax1.plot(years_arr, _vals(opp_sum, "mean_extremity"), ax1.plot(years_arr, _vals(opp_sum, "mean_extremity"),
@ -587,8 +558,7 @@ def create_figure_2(
ax1.set_xticks(years_arr) ax1.set_xticks(years_arr)
ax1.set_xticklabels([str(y) for y in years], rotation=45) ax1.set_xticklabels([str(y) for y in years], rotation=45)
# Panel D: Extremity-stratified centrist support (grouped bars with IQR error bars) bucket_order = EXTREMITY_BUCKET_ORDER
bucket_order = ["1-2 (mild)", "2-3 (moderate)", "3-4 (high)", "4-5 (extreme)"]
bucket_labels = ["1-2\nmild", "2-3\nmoderate", "3-4\nhigh", "4-5\nextreme"] bucket_labels = ["1-2\nmild", "2-3\nmoderate", "3-4\nhigh", "4-5\nextreme"]
bucket_colours = ["#81C784", "#FFB74D", "#E57373", "#BA68C8"] bucket_colours = ["#81C784", "#FFB74D", "#E57373", "#BA68C8"]
@ -669,7 +639,6 @@ def create_figure_3(
means = np.array([left_yearly[y]["mean_left_support"] for y in years]) means = np.array([left_yearly[y]["mean_left_support"] for y in years])
ns = np.array([left_yearly[y]["n"] for y in years]) ns = np.array([left_yearly[y]["n"] for y in years])
# Weighted all-years mean
overall_mean = np.average(means, weights=ns) if ns.sum() > 0 else 0.0 overall_mean = np.average(means, weights=ns) if ns.sum() > 0 else 0.0
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(12, 6)) fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(12, 6))
@ -722,11 +691,9 @@ def generate_report(
def _val(summary, year, key): def _val(summary, year, key):
return summary[year].get(key, np.nan) return summary[year].get(key, np.nan)
# Pre/post 2024 comparisons
pre_years = [y for y in years if y < BREAK_YEAR] pre_years = [y for y in years if y < BREAK_YEAR]
post_years = [y for y in years if y >= BREAK_YEAR] post_years = [y for y in years if y >= BREAK_YEAR]
# Pooled pre/post values for Cohen's d
rw_pre_cs = [] rw_pre_cs = []
rw_post_cs = [] rw_post_cs = []
rw_pre_ext = [] rw_pre_ext = []
@ -773,7 +740,6 @@ def generate_report(
d_opp_cs = cohens_d(np.array(opp_pre_cs), np.array(opp_post_cs)) if opp_pre_cs and opp_post_cs else float("nan") d_opp_cs = cohens_d(np.array(opp_pre_cs), np.array(opp_post_cs)) if opp_pre_cs and opp_post_cs else float("nan")
d_opp_ext = cohens_d(np.array(opp_pre_ext), np.array(opp_post_ext)) if opp_pre_ext and opp_post_ext else float("nan") d_opp_ext = cohens_d(np.array(opp_pre_ext), np.array(opp_post_ext)) if opp_pre_ext and opp_post_ext else float("nan")
# Yearly summary table
yearly_table = "| Year | N (RW) | Centrist Support (Strict) | Extremity | Right Support | Left Opp. |\n" yearly_table = "| Year | N (RW) | Centrist Support (Strict) | Extremity | Right Support | Left Opp. |\n"
yearly_table += "|------|--------|---------------------------|-----------|---------------|----------|\n" yearly_table += "|------|--------|---------------------------|-----------|---------------|----------|\n"
for y in years: for y in years:
@ -788,8 +754,7 @@ def generate_report(
lo_str = f"{lo:.3f}" if not np.isnan(lo) else "N/A" lo_str = f"{lo:.3f}" if not np.isnan(lo) else "N/A"
yearly_table += f"| {y} | {int(n)} | {cs_str} | {ext_str} | {rs_str} | {lo_str} |\n" yearly_table += f"| {y} | {int(n)} | {cs_str} | {ext_str} | {rs_str} | {lo_str} |\n"
# Extremity-stratified table (centrist support) bucket_order = EXTREMITY_BUCKET_ORDER
bucket_order = ["1-2 (mild)", "2-3 (moderate)", "3-4 (high)", "4-5 (extreme)"]
ext_table = "| Bucket | Period | N | Mean CS | Median CS | P25 | P75 |\n" ext_table = "| Bucket | Period | N | Mean CS | Median CS | P25 | P75 |\n"
ext_table += "|--------|--------|---|---------|-----------|---|-----|\n" ext_table += "|--------|--------|---|---------|-----------|---|-----|\n"
for b in bucket_order: for b in bucket_order:
@ -815,7 +780,6 @@ def generate_report(
f"{pt_p25:.3f} | {pt_p75:.3f} |\n" f"{pt_p25:.3f} | {pt_p75:.3f} |\n"
) )
# Audit table
audit_table = "| # | Year | Category | LLM Score | Bucket | Agreed? | Driver |\n" audit_table = "| # | Year | Category | LLM Score | Bucket | Agreed? | Driver |\n"
audit_table += "|---|------|----------|-----------|--------|---------|--------|\n" audit_table += "|---|------|----------|-----------|--------|---------|--------|\n"
for i, m in enumerate(audit_sample, 1): for i, m in enumerate(audit_sample, 1):
@ -901,7 +865,6 @@ def generate_report(
"parties filed milder motions post-2024 and the 'shift' is illusory.", "parties filed milder motions post-2024 and the 'shift' is illusory.",
] ]
# Section 6: Left support for right-wing motions
left_years_sorted = sorted(left_yearly.keys()) left_years_sorted = sorted(left_yearly.keys())
left_pre_years_list = [y for y in pre_years if y in left_yearly] left_pre_years_list = [y for y in pre_years if y in left_yearly]
left_post_years_list = [y for y in post_years if y in left_yearly] left_post_years_list = [y for y in post_years if y in left_yearly]

@ -63,6 +63,10 @@ def _party_in_set(party: str, canonical_set: frozenset) -> bool:
return normalized != party and normalized in canonical_set return normalized != party and normalized in canonical_set
def _fmt_axis(val: float | None) -> str:
return f"{val:.4f}" if val is not None else "N/A"
def compute_aligned_centers( def compute_aligned_centers(
scores: Dict[str, List[List[float]]], scores: Dict[str, List[List[float]]],
windows: List[str], windows: List[str],
@ -170,7 +174,6 @@ def compute_drift_metrics(
angle_rad = np.arctan2(dy_net, dx_net) angle_rad = np.arctan2(dy_net, dx_net)
angle_deg = float(np.degrees(angle_rad)) angle_deg = float(np.degrees(angle_rad))
# Right-wing net displacement for comparison
right_net = None right_net = None
right_valid = [ right_valid = [
c for c in annual_centers if c["right_mean_axis1"] is not None c for c in annual_centers if c["right_mean_axis1"] is not None
@ -186,7 +189,6 @@ def compute_drift_metrics(
"net_dy": round(r_dy, 6), "net_dy": round(r_dy, 6),
} }
# Is centrist center drifting toward or away from right-wing center?
approach_to_right = None approach_to_right = None
if ( if (
first.get("right_mean_axis1") is not None first.get("right_mean_axis1") is not None
@ -262,7 +264,6 @@ def plot_trajectory(
plt.close(fig) plt.close(fig)
return return
# Arrows between consecutive years
for i in range(len(cent_a1_valid) - 1): for i in range(len(cent_a1_valid) - 1):
ax.annotate( ax.annotate(
"", "",
@ -374,26 +375,10 @@ def write_report(
) )
lines.append("|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|") lines.append("|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|")
for c in centers: for c in centers:
cent_a1 = ( cent_a1 = _fmt_axis(c["centrist_mean_axis1"])
f"{c['centrist_mean_axis1']:.4f}" cent_a2 = _fmt_axis(c["centrist_mean_axis2"])
if c["centrist_mean_axis1"] is not None right_a1 = _fmt_axis(c["right_mean_axis1"])
else "N/A" right_a2 = _fmt_axis(c["right_mean_axis2"])
)
cent_a2 = (
f"{c['centrist_mean_axis2']:.4f}"
if c["centrist_mean_axis2"] is not None
else "N/A"
)
right_a1 = (
f"{c['right_mean_axis1']:.4f}"
if c["right_mean_axis1"] is not None
else "N/A"
)
right_a2 = (
f"{c['right_mean_axis2']:.4f}"
if c["right_mean_axis2"] is not None
else "N/A"
)
cent_parties = ", ".join(c["centrist_parties_present"]) cent_parties = ", ".join(c["centrist_parties_present"])
right_parties = ", ".join(c["right_parties_present"]) right_parties = ", ".join(c["right_parties_present"])
lines.append( lines.append(
@ -403,7 +388,6 @@ def write_report(
lines.append("") lines.append("")
# Drift metrics
lines.append("## Drift Metrics (Annual Windows Only)\n") lines.append("## Drift Metrics (Annual Windows Only)\n")
if drift.get("net_displacement") is not None: if drift.get("net_displacement") is not None:

@ -0,0 +1,447 @@
---
title: Right-Wing Motion Analysis Over Time
type: feat
status: active
date: 2026-05-05
---
# Right-Wing Motion Analysis Over Time
## Summary
Build a pipeline to identify, classify, and analyze right-wing motions across parliamentary history. Track how their volume, policy extremity, and cross-party support have evolved over time. Output includes a derived keyword taxonomy, a hybrid motion classifier, temporal aggregations, policy extremity scores, sentiment trajectories, and time-series visualizations.
---
## Problem Frame
The user hypothesizes that while the **volume** of right-wing motions has remained stable, the motions have become **more extreme** in policy demands and that **centrist parties** increasingly vote in favor of them. This suggests an "overton window" shift that cannot be detected by simple vote-counting alone.
The existing codebase has party-level ideological positioning (SVD/PCA) but lacks motion-level ideological scoring, keyword-based right-wing detection, or temporal analysis of how motion content has radicalized.
---
## Requirements
- **R1.** Derive a right-wing keyword taxonomy from the motions themselves (not hand-curated)
- **R2.** Build a hybrid classifier that identifies "actually right-wing" motions using both keywords and voting patterns
- **R3.** Aggregate and analyze trends per year (volume, support, cross-party adoption)
- **R4.** Score policy extremity (what the motion demands, not just sentiment)
- **R5.** Track sentiment/emotional tone over time as a proxy for radicalization
- **R6.** Produce time-series visualizations for exploration (not yet integrated into the Streamlit app)
- **R7.** Validate classifier accuracy to avoid false positives (e.g., left-wing parties discussing migration neutrally)
---
## Scope Boundaries
- **In scope:** Keyword derivation, motion classification, temporal aggregation, extremity scoring, sentiment analysis, static visualization output
- **Out of scope:** Integration into the Streamlit explorer app (deferred to follow-up)
- **Out of scope:** Real-time updates or pipeline automation
- **Out of scope:** Predictive modeling (we describe trends, we do not forecast)
### Deferred to Follow-Up Work
- **Streamlit tab integration:** Add an interactive "Right-Wing Trends" tab to the explorer (`analysis/tabs/right_wing_trends.py`): separate PR after this plan is executed
- **Motion-level ideological embedding:** Train or fine-tune a motion-specific embedding model to improve classification beyond keywords + votes
---
## Context & Research
### Relevant Code and Patterns
- **`analysis/config.py`** — Defines `CANONICAL_RIGHT = {"PVV", "FVD", "JA21", "SGP"}` and `CANONICAL_LEFT` — these sets are the ground-truth for right/left party identification
- **`scripts/derive_svd_labels.py`** — Already uses TF-IDF on motion titles with Dutch stopwords; this pattern should be reused/extened for keyword derivation
- **`scripts/motion_drift.py`** — Implements cross-ideological voting detection and semantic drift measurement; its `compute_party_voting()` logic is directly relevant for validating the hybrid classifier
- **`analysis/axis_classifier.py`** — Contains `_classify_from_titles()` with Dutch keyword regexes for 4 ideological categories; not sufficient alone but a useful reference for post-processing
- **`pipeline/text_pipeline.py`** — Generates text embeddings via API; can be reused if we need embeddings for the sentiment/extremity analysis
- **`analysis/explorer_data.py`** — `load_motions_df()` loads the full motions table with year parsing; primary data access pattern
- **`database.py`** / **`agent_tools/database.py`** — Provide DuckDB access to `motions` and `mp_votes` tables
### Institutional Learnings
- **`docs/solutions/best-practices/svd-labels-voting-patterns-not-semantics.md`** — Right-wing parties must appear on the RIGHT side of all axes; same principle applies here: classification must reflect voting behavior, not just semantic content
### External References
- Dutch parliamentary motion data is already present in DuckDB (`data/motions.db`)
- `motion_drift.py` already uses Ridge/Lasso regression for axis stability; similar regression techniques can be applied to temporal trend fitting
---
## Key Technical Decisions
- **Keyword derivation method:** TF-IDF on motion titles/body_text, restricted to motions where `CANONICAL_RIGHT` parties vote predominantly *voor*. This avoids hand-curating and captures the actual language used by right-wing parties.
- **Hybrid classifier:** Two-stage: (1) keyword match for initial filtering, (2) voting-pattern confirmation requiring >60% support from right-wing parties AND <40% opposition from left-wing parties. This handles cases where left-wing parties also use migration keywords neutrally.
- **Policy extremity:** Use an LLM (via `ai_provider.py` subagent pattern) to answer "What concrete policy change does this motion demand?" and rate the radicalism of that demand on a 1-5 scale. This captures policy substance, not emotional language.
- **Sentiment analysis:** Use a lightweight Dutch sentiment model (e.g., `pysentimiento` or similar) rather than an LLM, for cost and speed. If no good Dutch model exists, fallback to LLM batch calls.
- **Temporal granularity:** Annual buckets (`YYYY`), aligning with existing SVD window conventions (`2024`, `2025`, etc.)
- **Visualization:** Static Plotly charts exported to HTML/PNG, not yet integrated into Streamlit. This decouples analysis from UI work.
---
## Open Questions
### Resolved During Planning
- **Q: Should we analyze titles only or full body_text?**
- **A:** Start with titles (fast, already cleaned), validate on a sample using body_text, and upgrade if precision is insufficient.
- **Q: How do we define "centrist parties" for cross-party support tracking?**
- **A:** Treat as the complement of `CANONICAL_RIGHT` and `CANONICAL_LEFT` within `KNOWN_MAJOR_PARTIES`: VVD, D66, CDA, NSC, BBB, CU.
### Deferred to Implementation
- **Q: What is the optimal TF-IDF threshold for keyword inclusion?** — Depends on corpus distribution; will be determined by inspecting the keyword ranked list.
- **Q: Which Dutch sentiment model performs best on parliamentary language?** — Requires empirical testing; candidate models to be evaluated during U5.
- **Q: Does policy extremity scoring need few-shot examples for consistency?** — Will be determined during U4 implementation; if LLM outputs are inconsistent, add exemplars.
---
## High-Level Technical Design
> *This illustrates the intended approach and is directional guidance for review, not implementation specification. The implementing agent should treat it as context, not code to reproduce.*
```
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ PHASE 1: KEYWORD DERIVATION (U1) │
│ - Filter motions where right-wing parties vote >60% voor │
│ - Run TF-IDF on titles/body_text │
│ - Extract top-N distinctive terms │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ PHASE 2: HYBRID CLASSIFICATION (U2) │
│ - Keyword filter: motion contains any top-N term │
│ - Voting filter: right >60% voor AND left <40% tegen
│ - Output: right_wing_motions table with year, score │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ PHASE 3: TEMPORAL AGGREGATION (U3) │
│ - Group by year │
│ - Compute: count, % of total motions, avg support │
│ - Track: centrist party support over time │
│ - Output: yearly_summary DataFrame │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ PHASE 4: POLICY EXTREMITY (U4) │
│ - Sample motions per year (stratified by keyword density) │
│ - LLM prompt: "What concrete policy does this demand?" │
│ - Rate radicalism 1-5 │
│ - Output: extremity_scores table │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ PHASE 5: SENTIMENT ANALYSIS (U5) │
│ - Dutch sentiment model on motion titles/body_text │
│ - Aggregate: avg sentiment per year │
│ - Output: sentiment_by_year DataFrame │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ PHASE 6: VISUALIZATION (U6) │
│ - Time-series: volume, extremity, sentiment, centrist vote │
│ - Export: static HTML/PNG charts │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
```
---
## Execution Strategy: Agent Assignments & Parallelization
| Unit | Agents | Can Parallelize With | Notes |
|------|--------|---------------------|-------|
| U1 | `general` (text pipeline), `ce-best-practices-researcher` (keyword extraction patterns) | — | Foundation unit; must complete before all downstream work. DuckDB batch aggregation is I/O-bound and fast; no subagents needed. |
| U2 | `ce-best-practices-researcher` (TF-IDF best practices, Dutch NLP), `general` (implementation) | U3 (after U1) | Keyword derivation is research-heavy; the researcher can pre-fetch Dutch political TF-IDF patterns while `general` implements the aggregation. Once U1 data is ready, keyword extraction can run in parallel with U3's vote-pattern analysis. |
| U3 | `general` (DuckDB SQL + Python) | U2 (after U1) | Pure computation; no external research needed. Runs in parallel with U2 once U1 is done because U2 and U3 read the same `motion_rightness` table but produce independent features. |
| U4 | `general` (scikit-learn pipeline), `ce-framework-docs-researcher` (if exploring Dutch sentiment models) | — | Depends on U2 + U3. The LLM-based extremity scorer can be delegated to `general` in batch mode; no real-time LLM calls at inference time. |
| U5 | `ce-best-practices-researcher` (time-series visualization patterns), `general` (Plotly implementation) | — | Depends on U4. Visualization is straightforward once data shape is known; researcher mainly validates responsive/mobile chart patterns. |
| U6 | `general` (integration), `ce-test-browser` (if applicable) | — | Depends on U5. Integration work is sequential by nature; browser tests validate the Streamlit tab render. |
**Parallelization summary:**
- **U1** is strictly sequential (foundation).
- **U2 + U3** can run in parallel once U1 completes.
- **U4** is sequential after U2+U3.
- **U5 + U6** are sequential after U4.
- Total wall-clock phases: **4** (U1 → U2∥U3 → U4 → U5 → U6).
---
## Implementation Units
- **U1. Keyword Derivation**
**Goal:** Extract the most distinctive terms used in right-wing motions without hand-curating.
**Requirements:** R1
**Dependencies:** None
**Files:**
- Create: `analysis/right_wing/derive_keywords.py`
- Modify: `scripts/derive_svd_labels.py` (reference only)
- Test: `tests/test_derive_keywords.py`
**Approach:**
1. Query `motions` joined with `mp_votes` to identify motions where right-wing parties vote predominantly *voor* (>60%).
2. Collect a control group: motions where left-wing parties vote predominantly *voor* (>60%).
3. Run TF-IDF on titles (and optionally body_text) for both groups, using Dutch stopwords.
4. Compute differential TF-IDF: terms with high scores in right-group and low in left-group.
5. Manually inspect top 50 terms and filter out generic parliamentary terms (e.g., "motie", "kamer").
6. Persist the final keyword list to `analysis/right_wing/right_wing_keywords.json`.
**Patterns to follow:**
- `scripts/derive_svd_labels.py` for TF-IDF pipeline
- `analysis/config.py` for `CANONICAL_RIGHT` / `CANONICAL_LEFT`
**Test scenarios:**
- Happy path: right-wing motions contain terms like "migratie", "asiel", "grenzen" in top results
- Edge case: control group does NOT have these terms in top 50
- Edge case: generic terms ("motie", "regering") are filtered out
- Integration: keyword list can be loaded as JSON and used for regex matching
**Verification:**
- `right_wing_keywords.json` exists and contains >= 20 distinct terms
- Manual inspection confirms terms are politically distinctive
---
- **U2. Hybrid Motion Classifier**
**Goal:** Identify "actually right-wing" motions using both keywords and voting patterns.
**Requirements:** R2, R7
**Dependencies:** U1
**Files:**
- Create: `analysis/right_wing/classify_motions.py`
- Test: `tests/test_classify_motions.py`
**Approach:**
1. **Keyword filter:** Match motion title/body_text against `right_wing_keywords.json` (case-insensitive, whole-word regex).
2. **Voting filter:** For each candidate motion, compute:
- `right_support` = % of `CANONICAL_RIGHT` parties voting *voor*
- `left_opposition` = % of `CANONICAL_LEFT` parties voting *tegen*
- Pass if `right_support >= 0.60` AND `left_opposition >= 0.40`
3. Output a DuckDB table `right_wing_motions` with columns: `motion_id`, `year`, `title`, `right_support`, `left_opposition`, `keyword_matches`.
4. Run a validation sample: manually inspect 20 random classified motions and 20 random non-classified motions to estimate precision/recall.
**Patterns to follow:**
- `scripts/motion_drift.py` for cross-ideological voting logic
- `analysis/explorer_data.py` for data loading patterns
**Test scenarios:**
- Happy path: a PVV motion about "asielzoekers" with 80% right support and 60% left opposition is classified
- Edge case: a PvdA motion mentioning "migratie" neutrally with 20% right support is NOT classified
- Edge case: motion with right support 60% but left opposition only 10% is NOT classified
- Error path: motion with no votes is skipped gracefully
- Integration: `right_wing_motions` table is queryable and has expected row count
**Verification:**
- Validation sample shows >80% precision and >70% recall
- `right_wing_motions` table contains >100 rows (non-empty)
---
- **U3. Temporal Aggregation**
**Goal:** Compute yearly trends in right-wing motion volume, support, and cross-party adoption.
**Requirements:** R3
**Dependencies:** U2
**Files:**
- Create: `analysis/right_wing/temporal_analysis.py`
- Test: `tests/test_temporal_analysis.py`
**Approach:**
1. Group `right_wing_motions` by `year`.
2. For each year, compute:
- `total_right_wing`: count of right-wing motions
- `pct_of_total`: % of all motions that year
- `avg_right_support`: average right-party support
- `avg_left_opposition`: average left-party opposition
- `centrist_support`: % of centrist parties (VVD, D66, CDA, NSC, BBB, CU) voting *voor*
- `extremity_index`: placeholder for U4 scores (NULL until backfilled)
3. Compute year-over-year deltas for each metric.
4. Persist to `yearly_right_wing_summary` table or DataFrame export.
**Patterns to follow:**
- `analysis/trajectory.py` for time-windowed aggregations
- `analysis/explorer_data.py` for DuckDB-to-pandas patterns
**Test scenarios:**
- Happy path: each year has a row with all metrics computed
- Edge case: year with 0 right-wing motions shows 0 count and NULL centrist support
- Edge case: year with missing vote data for some parties still computes available metrics
- Integration: output DataFrame can be merged with U4 extremity scores
**Verification:**
- One row per year from earliest to latest motion
- `pct_of_total` values sum to <= 100% when checked manually for a sample year
- Centrist support shows a plausible trend (not all 0% or 100%)
---
- **U4. Policy Extremity Scoring**
**Goal:** Score how radical the policy demand of each right-wing motion is.
**Requirements:** R4
**Dependencies:** U2
**Files:**
- Create: `analysis/right_wing/extremity_scorer.py`
- Test: `tests/test_extremity_scorer.py`
**Approach:**
1. For each right-wing motion, build a prompt:
> "Dit is een motie in het Nederlandse parlement. Wat vraagt de motie concreet? Beoordeel hoe radicaal dit voorstel is op een schaal van 1 (mild/technisch) tot 5 (extreem/fundamenteel). Geef alleen het cijfer en een korte verklaring in het Nederlands."
2. Use `ai_provider.chat_completion_json()` with a JSON schema enforcing integer 1-5 + explanation string.
3. Batch process motions (parallel API calls, 10-15 per batch) to minimize cost.
4. Store results in `extremity_scores` table: `motion_id`, `score`, `explanation`.
5. Compute yearly average and merge into U3's summary.
**Execution note:** Start with a sample of 50 motions to validate scoring consistency before running the full set.
**Patterns to follow:**
- `summarizer.py` for batch LLM processing and parallel API calls
- `ai_provider.py` for JSON-mode chat completions
**Test scenarios:**
- Happy path: a motion demanding "sluit alle AZC's" scores 5/5
- Happy path: a motion requesting "rapporteer cijfers" scores 1/5
- Edge case: LLM returns invalid JSON → fallback to retry or mark as NULL
- Error path: API failure → motion is skipped, not blocking
- Integration: extremity scores correlate with keyword intensity (sanity check)
**Verification:**
- Sample of 50 shows inter-rater consistency (same motion re-scored twice gets same score)
- Score distribution is not all 1s or all 5s (has variance)
- `extremity_scores` table covers >= 90% of right-wing motions
---
- **U5. Sentiment Analysis Pipeline**
**Goal:** Track emotional tone of right-wing motions over time as a proxy for radicalization.
**Requirements:** R5
**Dependencies:** U2
**Files:**
- Create: `analysis/right_wing/sentiment_analysis.py`
- Test: `tests/test_sentiment_analysis.py`
**Approach:**
1. Evaluate candidate Dutch sentiment models:
- `pysentimiento` (nl model)
- `transformers` pipeline with Dutch BERT (`wietsedv/bert-base-dutch-cased` fine-tuned for sentiment)
- Fallback: LLM batch calls if models are poor
2. Run on motion titles + first 200 chars of body_text (avoiding noise).
3. Map outputs to [-1, 1] scale (negative = hostile/aggressive, positive = constructive).
4. Aggregate by year: avg sentiment, std deviation, % strongly negative.
5. Merge into U3 summary.
**Patterns to follow:**
- `pipeline/text_pipeline.py` for text preprocessing
- Lightweight model evaluation script similar to `test_mistral.py`
**Test scenarios:**
- Happy path: motion with "stop de immigratie" scores negative
- Happy path: motion with "verbeter de procedure" scores neutral/positive
- Edge case: very short title (< 5 words) is handled gracefully
- Error path: model fails to load → fallback to LLM or skip
- Integration: sentiment trend correlates with extremity trend (sanity check)
**Verification:**
- Sentiment scores show variance (not all identical)
- Manual inspection of 10 random motions confirms direction is plausible
- Model inference time is < 100ms per motion (acceptable for batch)
---
- **U6. Time-Series Visualization**
**Goal:** Produce static charts showing volume, extremity, sentiment, and centrist support over time.
**Requirements:** R6
**Dependencies:** U3, U4, U5
**Files:**
- Create: `analysis/right_wing/visualize_trends.py`
- Output: `output/right_wing_trends.html` and/or `.png` files
**Approach:**
1. Load `yearly_right_wing_summary` DataFrame.
2. Generate 4 charts:
- **Volume:** Line chart of `total_right_wing` + `pct_of_total` (dual axis)
- **Extremity:** Line chart of `avg_extremity_score` with error bars (std)
- **Sentiment:** Line chart of `avg_sentiment` + % strongly negative (stacked area)
- **Centrist Support:** Line chart of `centrist_support` over time with party breakdown
3. Use Plotly (consistent with `analysis/visualize.py`) with dark theme colors.
4. Export to `output/right_wing_trends.html` (interactive) and `.png` (static).
**Patterns to follow:**
- `analysis/visualize.py` for Plotly setup and theming
- `analysis/tabs/_rendering.py` for dark theme color constants
**Test scenarios:**
- Happy path: HTML file is generated and opens without errors
- Happy path: all 4 charts render with data spanning multiple years
- Edge case: missing data for some years → chart shows gaps, not crashes
- Integration: charts visually confirm the user's hypothesis (stable volume, rising extremity/centrist support)
**Verification:**
- `output/right_wing_trends.html` exists and is > 100KB
- Manual inspection of charts shows clear trends
- Charts are suitable for sharing (static PNGs are readable)
---
## System-Wide Impact
- **New tables:** `right_wing_motions`, `extremity_scores` — these are derived/analysis tables, not core schema. They can be regenerated.
- **No changes to existing tables:** `motions`, `mp_votes`, `svd_vectors` are read-only for this feature.
- **No API surface changes:** This is an offline analysis script, not integrated into the app yet.
- **Performance:** TF-IDF on ~29K titles is trivial. LLM calls for U4 are the bottleneck; batching keeps cost manageable.
---
## Risks & Dependencies
| Risk | Mitigation |
|------|------------|
| Keyword list overfits to current parliamentary period | Validate across multiple years; include historical data in TF-IDF corpus |
| LLM extremity scoring is inconsistent | Add few-shot examples; validate on sample before full run; allow NULL scores |
| Dutch sentiment model performs poorly on parliamentary language | Evaluate multiple models; fallback to LLM if needed |
| Classification has false positives (left-wing motions caught) | Hybrid voting filter mitigates this; validation sample checks precision |
| LLM API costs for extremity scoring exceed budget | Batch aggressively; score a stratified sample (e.g., 30 per year) instead of all motions |
---
## Documentation / Operational Notes
- Add a README in `analysis/right_wing/` explaining how to regenerate the analysis
- Document the keyword list and classification thresholds for reproducibility
- Note the LLM model used for extremity scoring and its version/date
---
## Sources & References
- **Related code:** `scripts/motion_drift.py`, `scripts/derive_svd_labels.py`, `analysis/axis_classifier.py`
- **Related learnings:** `docs/solutions/best-practices/svd-labels-voting-patterns-not-semantics.md`
- **Origin:** User request — analyze right-wing motion trends over time

@ -0,0 +1,212 @@
---
title: "Parallel API batching for AI motion summarization with adaptive throughput"
date: "2026-05-05"
category: workflow-issues
module: summarizer
problem_type: workflow_issue
component: service_object
severity: medium
applies_when:
- "Backfilling large numbers of AI-generated summaries via an API"
- "Rate limits or slow throughput bottlenecking batch processing"
- "Need to process 10,000+ items with an LLM API"
tags:
- parallelization
- batching
- openrouter
- mistral
- throughput
- cost-optimization
---
# Parallel API Batching for AI Motion Summarization
## Context
Generating layman-friendly explanations for 29,000+ parliamentary motions via an LLM API. Initial approach processed one motion per API call, yielding ~700 motions/hour with significant per-request overhead. At this rate, the full backfill would take ~40 hours and cost ~$15-20. The budget tracking was also inaccurate — estimated $5.00 cap but actual API spend was only ~$1.78 when the cap was hit.
## Guidance
### 1. Application-level batching (not native API batching)
OpenAI's `/chat/completions` endpoint does not support multiple independent conversations in one request. Instead, pack 10-20 motions into a single prompt and request structured JSON output:
```python
# Build one prompt with N motions
prompt = f"""Je krijgt {len(motions)} moties.
Schrijf voor ELKE motie 2-3 zinnen uitleg.
Geef antwoord als JSON: {{"motion_id": "uitleg", ...}}
{motions_block}
"""
# Request JSON mode
payload = {
"model": model,
"messages": messages,
"response_format": {"type": "json_object"}
}
```
This eliminates 90%+ of per-request HTTP overhead and context-window overhead.
### 2. Parallel API requests with ThreadPoolExecutor
When the API supports concurrent requests, use `ThreadPoolExecutor` to saturate the connection:
```python
from concurrent.futures import ThreadPoolExecutor
def chat_completion_json_parallel(
message_batches, model=None, max_workers=3
):
def _fetch_one(messages):
return chat_completion_json(messages, model=model)
with ThreadPoolExecutor(max_workers=max_workers) as executor:
futures = [executor.submit(_fetch_one, batch) for batch in message_batches]
return [f.result() for f in futures]
```
With 3 parallel workers × 15 motions per batch = 45 motions per chunk. This yielded **2.0x speedup** (0.5 → 1.0 motions/sec). After fixing the parameter-passing bug (see "Critical gotcha" below), 5 workers × 20 motions = 100 motions per chunk achieved **3.4x speedup** (1.1 → 3.7 motions/sec).
### 3. Model selection for language quality
Tested three models on the same problematic motions:
| Model | Quality | Speed | Issues |
|-------|---------|-------|--------|
| `google/gemma-4-26b-a4b-it` | Good | Slow (~25s/batch) | Occasional English words |
| `mistralai/mistral-small-2603` | **Excellent** | Medium | None observed |
| `mistralai/mistral-small-3.2-24b-instruct` | Good | Medium | One blank output |
**Recommendation**: `mistralai/mistral-small-2603` for Dutch-language tasks. Test on a representative sample (20-50 items) before committing to a full backfill.
### 4. Post-processing pipeline
Always add a post-processing step to catch model failures:
```python
def _post_process_summary(self, text: str) -> str:
# 1. Remove lines that are mostly non-Latin (Chinese, Arabic, etc.)
# 2. Replace known English words with Dutch equivalents
# 3. Fix common typos (e.g., "lageinkomen" → "laag inkomen")
# 4. Reject if >10 common English words remain
# 5. Remove metadata fragments like "(45-102)"
# 6. Normalize whitespace and punctuation
```
This caught: Arabic script hallucinations, English words like "filthy", Dutch typos like "formuliernoten", and metadata leaking from titles.
### 5. Adaptive backfill script
Create a backfill script that monitors throughput and adjusts parameters dynamically:
```python
# Start conservative
api_batch_size = 15
parallel_batches = 3
chunk_size = api_batch_size * parallel_batches # 45
# After each chunk, measure time
if chunk_time < avg_chunk_time * 0.8:
api_batch_size += 1 # API is fast, increase batch
elif chunk_time > avg_chunk_time * 1.5:
api_batch_size -= 1 # API is slow, decrease batch
# On repeated failures, back off
if failures_in_row >= 2:
api_batch_size -= 2
delay_between_chunks += 1.0
```
### Critical gotcha: pass parallelism config all the way through
When adding `parallel_batches` to the orchestration layer, make sure it actually reaches the API call. A common bug is adding the parameter to the outer script but leaving hardcoded defaults in the inner method:
```python
# summarizer.py — WRONG (hardcoded defaults)
def generate_layman_explanations_batch_parallel(
self, motions, model=None, parallel_batches=3, sub_batch_size=15
):
...
def update_motion_summaries(
self, ..., api_batch_size=15, parallel_batches=3 # still hardcoded!
):
...
summaries = self.generate_layman_explanations_batch_parallel(
motions_for_api,
model=config.QWEN_MODEL,
parallel_batches=3, # <-- BUG: ignores parameter
sub_batch_size=15, # <-- BUG: ignores parameter
)
```
**Fix**: pass the parameters through and compute `sub_batch_size` dynamically:
```python
# summarizer.py — CORRECT
def update_motion_summaries(
self, ..., api_batch_size=15, parallel_batches=3
):
...
summaries = self.generate_layman_explanations_batch_parallel(
motions_for_api,
model=config.QWEN_MODEL,
parallel_batches=parallel_batches,
sub_batch_size=api_batch_size // parallel_batches,
)
```
**Impact of this bug**: With `parallel_batches=3` hardcoded, increasing backfill.py to 5 workers had zero effect. After fixing: speed jumped from **1.1 → 3.7 motions/sec** (3.4x).
### 6. Accurate cost tracking
Update cost estimates when switching models. The old estimate assumed Qwen at $0.60/M tokens, but Mistral Small is much cheaper:
```python
# Mistral Small 2603 pricing (OpenRouter)
TOKEN_PRICE_PER_MILLION = 0.07 # blended input+output
TOKENS_PER_MOTION = 480 # ~400 input + ~80 output
COST_PER_MOTION = (TOKENS_PER_MOTION / 1_000_000) * TOKEN_PRICE_PER_MILLION
# ≈ $0.000034 per motion
```
## Why This Matters
- **Speed**: From ~700/hour (single) to ~13,320/hour (parallel batch, 5 workers) — **19x faster**
- **Cost**: From ~$15-20 estimated to ~$1-2 actual for 30,000 motions
- **Quality**: Model testing on edge cases prevents garbage-in-garbage-out at scale
- **Reliability**: Post-processing catches ~5% of outputs that would degrade UX
## When to Apply
- Processing 1,000+ items through any LLM API
- API charges per-request (not per-token) or has high latency per request
- Output quality is critical and model hallucinations are unacceptable
- Running overnight/background backfills where throughput matters more than latency
## Examples
### Before (single-motion API calls)
```python
for motion in motions:
summary = ai.chat_completion(build_prompt(motion))
# 50 motions = 50 API calls, ~250s total
```
### After (parallel batching)
```python
# Split into 3 batches of 15
batches = [motions[i:i+15] for i in range(0, 50, 15)]
message_batches = [build_batch_prompt(batch) for batch in batches]
results = chat_completion_json_parallel(message_batches, max_workers=3)
# 50 motions = 3 API calls, ~25s total
```
## Related
- `ai_provider.py``chat_completion_json_parallel()` implementation
- `summarizer.py``MotionSummarizer` with batch and parallel methods
- `backfill.py` — Adaptive backfill script with dynamic parameter tuning

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