# Right-Wing Party Differentiation

**Goal:** Break down right-wing motion metrics by party (PVV, FVD, JA21, SGP)
to identify which party drives the moderation effect.

**Analysis period:** 2016–2026
**Right-wing parties:** FVD, JA21, PVV, SGP
**Data:** 962 right-wing submitter motions with 2D extremity scores
(from 2,850 classified right-wing motions total; 1,888 could not be parsed/party-matched).

---

## 1. Motion Volume by Party and Year

| Year | FVD | JA21 | PVV | SGP | Total RW |
|------|---|----|---|---|----------|
| 2016 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2017 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2018 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019 | 9 | 0 | 41 | 20 | 70 |
| 2020 | 44 | 0 | 87 | 31 | 162 |
| 2021 | 23 | 17 | 70 | 35 | 145 |
| 2022 | 11 | 20 | 58 | 31 | 120 |
| 2023 | 13 | 20 | 52 | 27 | 112 |
| 2024 | 6 | 52 | 34 | 29 | 121 |
| 2025 | 21 | 54 | 54 | 21 | 150 |
| 2026 | 11 | 33 | 35 | 3 | 82 |

---

## 2. Centrist Support (Strict) by Party and Year

| Year | FVD | JA21 | PVV | SGP |
|------|---|----|---|---|
| 2016 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2017 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2018 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2019 | 0.000 | N/A | 0.074 | 0.350 |
| 2020 | 0.057 | N/A | 0.052 | 0.387 |
| 2021 | 0.000 | 0.088 | 0.014 | 0.286 |
| 2022 | 0.000 | 0.050 | 0.043 | 0.242 |
| 2023 | 0.000 | 0.075 | 0.067 | 0.407 |
| 2024 | 0.056 | 0.212 | 0.314 | 0.506 |
| 2025 | 0.095 | 0.315 | 0.139 | 0.603 |
| 2026 | 0.000 | 0.300 | 0.086 | 0.167 |

---

## 3. Material Impact by Party and Year

| Year | FVD | JA21 | PVV | SGP |
|------|---|----|---|---|
| 2016 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2017 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2018 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2019 | 3.56 | N/A | 3.34 | 2.65 |
| 2020 | 3.18 | N/A | 3.30 | 2.84 |
| 2021 | 2.96 | 3.41 | 3.23 | 2.91 |
| 2022 | 2.45 | 3.05 | 2.67 | 2.26 |
| 2023 | 2.92 | 3.85 | 3.25 | 2.74 |
| 2024 | 3.50 | 3.13 | 2.50 | 2.52 |
| 2025 | 3.00 | 2.44 | 2.50 | 2.10 |
| 2026 | 1.91 | 2.36 | 2.54 | 2.00 |

---

## 4. Pre/Post-2024 Comparison by Party

| Party | N Pre | N Post | CS Pre | CS Post | Delta CS | Mat. Pre | Mat. Post | Delta Mat. | Vol. Delta |
|-------|-------|--------|--------|---------|----------|----------|-----------|------------|------------|
| FVD | 100 | 38 | 0.025 | 0.061 | +0.036 | 3.05 | 2.76 | -0.29 | -62 |
| JA21 | 57 | 139 | 0.070 | 0.273 | +0.203 | 3.44 | 2.68 | -0.76 | +82 |
| PVV | 308 | 123 | 0.047 | 0.172 | +0.125 | 3.16 | 2.51 | -0.65 | -185 |
| SGP | 144 | 53 | 0.330 | 0.525 | +0.195 | 2.69 | 2.32 | -0.37 | -91 |

---

## 5. Key Findings

**Centrist support shift (largest to smallest):**
- **JA21**: +0.203
- **SGP**: +0.195
- **PVV**: +0.125
- **FVD**: +0.036

### Volume
- **FVD**: 100 pre-2024 → 38 post-2024 (-62)
- **JA21**: 57 pre-2024 → 139 post-2024 (+82)
- **PVV**: 308 pre-2024 → 123 post-2024 (-185)
- **SGP**: 144 pre-2024 → 53 post-2024 (-91)

### Material Impact Shift
- **FVD**: 3.05 → 2.76 (-0.29)
- **JA21**: 3.44 → 2.68 (-0.76)
- **PVV**: 3.16 → 2.51 (-0.65)
- **SGP**: 2.69 → 2.32 (-0.37)

---

## 6. Parsing Notes

- Parsed and party-matched: 962 motions
- Right-wing submitter motions: 962
- Unmatched/unparsed: 1,888
- Submitter party is parsed from motion title prefixes (e.g. 'Motie van het lid Wilders ...').
- Multi-submitter motions use the first listed submitter.
- Party names are normalized via `_PARTY_NORMALIZE` (e.g. Groep Markuszower → PVV).

---

## 7. Figure

![Party differentiation figure](party_differentiation_figure.png)