Sven Geboers
d05ec40584
fix(overton): address 6 substantive audit findings across all report surfaces
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- NSC sensitivity: only 3.1% of CS surge attributable to NSC inclusion
- Submitter parsing: opposition-only d=0.85 likely inflated (~0.65-0.75)
- Mechanism taxonomy: relabeled as exploratory (kappa=0.41, 50.5% agreement)
- Causal claims: softened from 'refuted' to 'less consistent with data'
- 2026 reversion: material moderation persisted but shock was primary driver
- Placeholder contamination: r=0.43 drops to r=0.34 without 6K (1,1) defaults
2 weeks ago
Sven Geboers
8826346190
fix(overton): reframe verdict and migration as gateway domain
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- Verdict now says 'window widened' (not 'did not shift') — centrist
support surged for right-wing motions while staying flat for left-wing
- Migration reframed from 'one exception' to 'gateway domain' — where
acceptance expanded most genuinely and right-wing parties learned
frames they applied elsewhere
- Explorer Overton tab: added migration gateway section with pre/post
metrics, full motion text (no truncation), 100-motion browser
- Explorer Kompas tab: updated Overton context to lead with the shift
- Explorer Trajectories tab: Dutch-language Overton annotation
- Synthesis, QMD, HTML report, STATUS.md all updated consistently
2 weeks ago
Sven Geboers
5706e86777
feat(overton): coherent narrative architecture — Quarto article, Explorer Overton tab, report cleanup
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- U1: Remove stale findings_report.md and blog_post.html, add cross-reference
headers to all 13 appendix reports, switch HTML report to canonical 4-party
centrist definition
- U2: Create Quarto narrative spine (overton_window.qmd) with 9 sections and
6 interactive Plotly charts. Includes 'About Stemwijzer' platform section.
- U3: Add Overton tab to Explorer (centrist support trend, right-wing motion
browser, explore-further links). Add Overton context expander to Kompas tab
and 2024 breakpoint annotation to Trajectories tab.
- U4: Create build_all_reports.py master regeneration script (3-phase,
dependency-ordered, --skip-llm support)
- U5: Update README with Research section, create reports/overton_window/README.md
reading guide, update STATUS.md with broader platform framing
Plan: docs/plans/2026-06-06-001-overton-coherent-narrative-plan.md
282 tests pass.
2 weeks ago
Sven Geboers
7df961ba83
feat(overton): address 7 critical gaps in Overton window analysis
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U1: Temporal trajectory — quarterly granularity reveals immediate
electoral jump at 2024-Q1 (+0.180), peak at 2024-Q4 (0.648), reversion
to 0.334 by 2026-Q1.
U2: 2D extremity temporal — single-score masks divergence. Material
impact decreased (-0.146) while stylistic increased (+0.097).
Wilcoxon p=0.002 confirms systematic divergence.
U3: Systematic mechanism classification — 150 motions. Consensus
framing confirmed (24% high-CS vs 8% low-CS, p=0.014). Post-2024
high-CS dominated by procedural (32%), consensus (24%), targeted
restriction (17%).
U4: Causal timing — shift is electorally driven (after Nov 2023 PVV
election, before Jul 2024 Schoof cabinet). Rules out coalition
dynamics, gradual learning, European contagion.
U5: Left-wing response — barely changed (21.3%→20.2%, -1.1pp).
Centrist shift (d=+1.89) is 18.3x larger than left hardening
(d=-0.75). Volt is only left party that softened (+12.9pp).
U6: Success correlation — significant trend (p<0.001) but success
premium only +3.2%, ceiling effect at 96%+ limits practical meaning.
U7: Synthesis update — integrated all findings, updated verdict
to note electoral-cycle effect and 2026-Q1 reversion.
3 weeks ago
Sven Geboers
1e06c46bd9
docs(overton): add domain decomposition, MP-level granularity, anti-institutional analysis
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- Non-migration: strategic moderation (impact down, volume up)
- Migration: acceptance expansion (M=5 support 0→19%, impact stable)
- MP-level: CDA+ChristenUnie drive shift, D66 barely moves
- Anti-institutional: abolition→contestation (nexit=0, judiciary up)
- Updated verdict with migration as sole acceptance exception
4 weeks ago
Sven Geboers
23aa70133f
docs(overton): revise verdict — window did NOT shift right, right-wing moderated
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Material impact declined post-2024 (2.78→2.43, M>=4 share 23.7%→11.3%).
Right-wing strategic moderation: more motions, milder content, better
framing. The Overton window did not expand — right-wing proposals
shifted into the existing window. 'Acceptance through moderation'
replaces 'acceptance without conversion.'
4 weeks ago
Sven Geboers
cea1468f15
docs: caveat SVD spatial positions reflect voting patterns, not policy content
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SVD axes capture agreement structure — centrists 'moving left' means
voting patterns diverged from right-wing, not that parties changed
ideology. 'Acceptance without conversion' is a behavioral claim.
Documented as best-practice learning.
4 weeks ago
Sven Geboers
eada678c0c
docs(overton): Add Overton window shift synthesis report
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Three-indicator verdict: window widened (acceptance without conversion)
- Centrist support: 0.251→0.507, d=+0.65 (d=+0.85 opposition-only)
- SVD: centrists moved LEFT spatially while voting more with right
- 2D extremity: r=0.47, material 0.83 above stylistic (2,869 motions)
- Mechanisms: consensus framing (33%), institutional (21%), welfare (17%)
4 weeks ago
Sven Geboers