Sven Geboers
5706e86777
feat(overton): coherent narrative architecture — Quarto article, Explorer Overton tab, report cleanup
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- U1: Remove stale findings_report.md and blog_post.html, add cross-reference
headers to all 13 appendix reports, switch HTML report to canonical 4-party
centrist definition
- U2: Create Quarto narrative spine (overton_window.qmd) with 9 sections and
6 interactive Plotly charts. Includes 'About Stemwijzer' platform section.
- U3: Add Overton tab to Explorer (centrist support trend, right-wing motion
browser, explore-further links). Add Overton context expander to Kompas tab
and 2024 breakpoint annotation to Trajectories tab.
- U4: Create build_all_reports.py master regeneration script (3-phase,
dependency-ordered, --skip-llm support)
- U5: Update README with Research section, create reports/overton_window/README.md
reading guide, update STATUS.md with broader platform framing
Plan: docs/plans/2026-06-06-001-overton-coherent-narrative-plan.md
282 tests pass.
2 weeks ago
Sven Geboers
364c312076
fix(right-wing): update DB with latest motions, fix DROP TABLE bug, score all missing 2D
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- Fetched 276 new motions from Tweede Kamer API (2026-04-23 to 2026-05-31)
- Fixed classify_motions.py: DROP TABLE → CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS
- Restored derived columns (centrist_support_strict, category, etc.) via migration
- Scored 180 missing motions in extremity_scores_2d (now 3,049 total, 0 missing)
- Re-ran temporal trajectory with updated data (inflection: 2024-Q2)
3 weeks ago
Sven Geboers
7df961ba83
feat(overton): address 7 critical gaps in Overton window analysis
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U1: Temporal trajectory — quarterly granularity reveals immediate
electoral jump at 2024-Q1 (+0.180), peak at 2024-Q4 (0.648), reversion
to 0.334 by 2026-Q1.
U2: 2D extremity temporal — single-score masks divergence. Material
impact decreased (-0.146) while stylistic increased (+0.097).
Wilcoxon p=0.002 confirms systematic divergence.
U3: Systematic mechanism classification — 150 motions. Consensus
framing confirmed (24% high-CS vs 8% low-CS, p=0.014). Post-2024
high-CS dominated by procedural (32%), consensus (24%), targeted
restriction (17%).
U4: Causal timing — shift is electorally driven (after Nov 2023 PVV
election, before Jul 2024 Schoof cabinet). Rules out coalition
dynamics, gradual learning, European contagion.
U5: Left-wing response — barely changed (21.3%→20.2%, -1.1pp).
Centrist shift (d=+1.89) is 18.3x larger than left hardening
(d=-0.75). Volt is only left party that softened (+12.9pp).
U6: Success correlation — significant trend (p<0.001) but success
premium only +3.2%, ceiling effect at 96%+ limits practical meaning.
U7: Synthesis update — integrated all findings, updated verdict
to note electoral-cycle effect and 2026-Q1 reversion.
3 weeks ago
Sven Geboers