Commit Graph
6 Commits
Author SHA1 Message Date
sgeboers a5624f65bc style: humanize reports and translate Streamlit UI to English
Streamlit tabs: translated all Dutch text to English in overton.py,
compass.py (Overton expander + voting discipline), trajectories.py.

Humanization (all 3 report surfaces):
- Removed 60+ em dashes, replaced with periods/commas/colons
- Removed AI vocabulary (crucial, pivotal, underscores, landscape)
- Removed excessive boldface, rule-of-three, -ing padding
- Replaced 'serves as'/'stands as' with 'is'
- Preserved all data, numbers, tables, code blocks exactly
2026-06-14 23:39:34 +02:00
sgeboers 3192a1a2bf fix(overton): correct 3 critical data errors and 3 high-severity caveats
CRIT-1: Stylistic extremity direction reversed — both dimensions declined
  (stijl 1.875→1.744, not increased +0.097). Holistic moderation, not divergence.
CRIT-2: Masking rate corrected from 36.1% to 9.7% (S≤2, M≥4 on full dataset).
  Original 36.8% was from 117-motion manual audit, not extrapolatable.
CRIT-3: Material impact values harmonized to motion-level means (2.79→2.45).
  Old values (2.78→2.43) used undisclosed mean-of-yearly-means aggregation.
HIGH-1: Migration domain provenance caveat — category column is NULL,
  analysis relies on title keyword matching (approximate boundaries).
HIGH-2: 2026-Q2 bounce caveat — n=44, bimodal distribution, sensitive to
  composition (many consensus defense motions among CS=1.0 items).
HIGH-3: Non-right-wing control group corrected — CS rose 58%→62% (+3.5pp),
  not 'flat at 49%'. Surge was disproportionate for right-wing content.

Also: fixed 6-party centrist definition (line 30) to 4-party,
removed 'did not shift rightward' phrasing, added Phase 4 synthesis
reminder to build_all_reports.py.
2026-06-14 22:45:12 +02:00
sgeboers e00ad6283f fix(overton): update verdict — migration acceptance durable, non-migration temporary
Key finding from 2026 data:
- 2026-Q2 CS bounced back to 0.523 (from 0.334 in Q1)
- Migration CS (0.395) now EXCEEDS non-migration (0.368) for first time
- Multiple 2026-Q2 migration motions got unanimous centrist support (CS=1.00)

Updated verdict across synthesis, QMD, and HTML:
- Non-migration acceptance was a temporary electoral shock response
- Migration acceptance is durable and growing as debate intensifies
- The Overton shift is domain-specific, not uniformly temporary

Also fixed hashline formatting corruption in synthesis file.
2026-06-08 19:42:57 +02:00
sgeboers d05ec40584 fix(overton): address 6 substantive audit findings across all report surfaces
- NSC sensitivity: only 3.1% of CS surge attributable to NSC inclusion
- Submitter parsing: opposition-only d=0.85 likely inflated (~0.65-0.75)
- Mechanism taxonomy: relabeled as exploratory (kappa=0.41, 50.5% agreement)
- Causal claims: softened from 'refuted' to 'less consistent with data'
- 2026 reversion: material moderation persisted but shock was primary driver
- Placeholder contamination: r=0.43 drops to r=0.34 without 6K (1,1) defaults
2026-06-08 19:11:48 +02:00
sgeboers 8826346190 fix(overton): reframe verdict and migration as gateway domain
- Verdict now says 'window widened' (not 'did not shift') — centrist
  support surged for right-wing motions while staying flat for left-wing
- Migration reframed from 'one exception' to 'gateway domain' — where
  acceptance expanded most genuinely and right-wing parties learned
  frames they applied elsewhere
- Explorer Overton tab: added migration gateway section with pre/post
  metrics, full motion text (no truncation), 100-motion browser
- Explorer Kompas tab: updated Overton context to lead with the shift
- Explorer Trajectories tab: Dutch-language Overton annotation
- Synthesis, QMD, HTML report, STATUS.md all updated consistently
2026-06-07 22:29:29 +02:00
sgeboers 5706e86777 feat(overton): coherent narrative architecture — Quarto article, Explorer Overton tab, report cleanup
- U1: Remove stale findings_report.md and blog_post.html, add cross-reference
  headers to all 13 appendix reports, switch HTML report to canonical 4-party
  centrist definition
- U2: Create Quarto narrative spine (overton_window.qmd) with 9 sections and
  6 interactive Plotly charts. Includes 'About Stemwijzer' platform section.
- U3: Add Overton tab to Explorer (centrist support trend, right-wing motion
  browser, explore-further links). Add Overton context expander to Kompas tab
  and 2024 breakpoint annotation to Trajectories tab.
- U4: Create build_all_reports.py master regeneration script (3-phase,
  dependency-ordered, --skip-llm support)
- U5: Update README with Research section, create reports/overton_window/README.md
  reading guide, update STATUS.md with broader platform framing

Plan: docs/plans/2026-06-06-001-overton-coherent-narrative-plan.md
282 tests pass.
2026-06-07 22:02:04 +02:00