 Sven Geboers
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a3154f72df
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refactor: extract shared helpers to common.py, fix bugs, add TDD tests
- Created analysis/right_wing/common.py with all shared helpers:
Constants: CANONICAL_CENTRIST, COALITION, BREAK_YEAR, etc.
Functions: _conn, cohens_d, build_party_name_map, parse_lead_submitter,
motion_passed, quarter_sort_key, find_inflection_point
- Fixed bugs:
1. ai_provider.py: requests.Timeout now caught alongside ConnectionError
2. voting_margin.py: Removed walrus operator misuse, fixed Mann-Whitney test
- Updated 13 consuming files to import from common.py
- Added 35 TDD tests in tests/right_wing/test_common.py
- 282 tests pass (was 247)
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2 months ago |
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Sven Geboers
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7df961ba83
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feat(overton): address 7 critical gaps in Overton window analysis
U1: Temporal trajectory — quarterly granularity reveals immediate
electoral jump at 2024-Q1 (+0.180), peak at 2024-Q4 (0.648), reversion
to 0.334 by 2026-Q1.
U2: 2D extremity temporal — single-score masks divergence. Material
impact decreased (-0.146) while stylistic increased (+0.097).
Wilcoxon p=0.002 confirms systematic divergence.
U3: Systematic mechanism classification — 150 motions. Consensus
framing confirmed (24% high-CS vs 8% low-CS, p=0.014). Post-2024
high-CS dominated by procedural (32%), consensus (24%), targeted
restriction (17%).
U4: Causal timing — shift is electorally driven (after Nov 2023 PVV
election, before Jul 2024 Schoof cabinet). Rules out coalition
dynamics, gradual learning, European contagion.
U5: Left-wing response — barely changed (21.3%→20.2%, -1.1pp).
Centrist shift (d=+1.89) is 18.3x larger than left hardening
(d=-0.75). Volt is only left party that softened (+12.9pp).
U6: Success correlation — significant trend (p<0.001) but success
premium only +3.2%, ceiling effect at 96%+ limits practical meaning.
U7: Synthesis update — integrated all findings, updated verdict
to note electoral-cycle effect and 2026-Q1 reversion.
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2 months ago |
