feat(analysis): fetch real MP metadata, fix anchor axis for party-level actors

- fetch_mp_metadata: use real OData URL with pagination (1200 records, 5 pages)
  uses Fractie.Afkorting not NaamNL for abbreviation matching
  skips Verwijderd=true records
- upsert_mp_metadata: keep most recent membership (prefer active over ended,
  then higher Van date) so current party affiliations are not overwritten by historical
- compute_anchor_axis: anchor directly on party-level SVD entities (GroenLinks-PvdA etc)
  before falling back to mp_metadata individual MP lookup
- test_fetch_mp_metadata: fix mock for timeout kwarg + pagination + Afkorting field
- Generated anchor axis HTML for 2025-Q2 through 2026-Q1 in outputs/

pipeline/fetch_mp_metadata.py

@@ -34,61 +34,85 @@ def normalize_mp_name(
     return name
 
 
+_ODATA_BASE = "https://gegevensmagazijn.tweedekamer.nl/OData/v4/2.0"
+_PAGE_SIZE = 250
+
+
 def fetch_mp_metadata(
-    db_path: str, odata_url: str = "https://odata.example/FractieZetelPersoon"
+    db_path: str,
+    odata_url: str = f"{_ODATA_BASE}/FractieZetelPersoon",
 ) -> int:
     """Fetch MP party membership and tenure from OData and upsert into DB.
 
+    Paginates through all records using $skip.  Uses Fractie.Afkorting as
+    the party name so it matches the abbreviations used in mp_votes.
+
     Returns the number of records processed (inserted or updated).
     """
+    expand = "$expand=FractieZetel($expand=Fractie),Persoon"
     session = requests.Session()
-    try:
-        resp = session.get(odata_url)
-        resp.raise_for_status()
-        data = resp.json()
-    except Exception as e:
-        logger.error("Failed to fetch MP metadata: %s", e)
-        raise
-
-    values = data.get("value") if isinstance(data, dict) else None
-    if values is None:
-        logger.error("Unexpected OData payload; missing 'value' list")
-        return 0
-
     db = MotionDatabase(db_path)
     processed = 0
+    skip = 0
 
-    for item in values:
+    while True:
+        url = f"{odata_url}?{expand}&$top={_PAGE_SIZE}&$skip={skip}"
         try:
-            persoon = item.get("Persoon") or {}
-            fractiezetel = item.get("FractieZetel") or {}
-            fractie = fractiezetel.get("Fractie") or {}
+            resp = session.get(url, timeout=30)
+            resp.raise_for_status()
+            data = resp.json()
+        except Exception as e:
+            logger.error("Failed to fetch MP metadata (skip=%d): %s", skip, e)
+            raise
 
-            achternaam = persoon.get("Achternaam")
-            initialen = persoon.get("Initialen")
-            tussenvoegsel = persoon.get("Tussenvoegsel")
-            persoon_id = persoon.get("Id")
+        values = data.get("value") if isinstance(data, dict) else None
+        if values is None:
+            logger.error("Unexpected OData payload at skip=%d; missing 'value'", skip)
+            break
 
-            party = fractie.get("NaamNL")
-            van = item.get("Van")
-            tot_en_met = item.get("TotEnMet")
+        if not values:
+            break  # no more pages
 
-            if not achternaam:
-                logger.debug("Skipping record without achternaam: %s", item)
-                continue
+        for item in values:
+            try:
+                if item.get("Verwijderd"):
+                    continue
 
-            mp_name = normalize_mp_name(achternaam, initialen, tussenvoegsel)
+                persoon = item.get("Persoon") or {}
+                fractiezetel = item.get("FractieZetel") or {}
+                fractie = fractiezetel.get("Fractie") or {}
 
-            db.upsert_mp_metadata(
-                mp_name=mp_name,
-                party=party,
-                van=van,
-                tot_en_met=tot_en_met,
-                persoon_id=persoon_id,
-            )
-            processed += 1
-        except Exception:
-            logger.exception("Error processing OData item: %s", item)
+                achternaam = persoon.get("Achternaam")
+                initialen = persoon.get("Initialen")
+                tussenvoegsel = persoon.get("Tussenvoegsel")
+                persoon_id = persoon.get("Id")
+
+                # Use Afkorting (e.g. "VVD", "GroenLinks-PvdA") to match mp_votes party column
+                party = fractie.get("Afkorting") or fractie.get("NaamNL")
+                van = item.get("Van")
+                tot_en_met = item.get("TotEnMet")
+
+                if not achternaam:
+                    logger.debug("Skipping record without achternaam: %s", item)
+                    continue
+
+                mp_name = normalize_mp_name(achternaam, initialen, tussenvoegsel)
+
+                db.upsert_mp_metadata(
+                    mp_name=mp_name,
+                    party=party,
+                    van=van,
+                    tot_en_met=tot_en_met,
+                    persoon_id=persoon_id,
+                )
+                processed += 1
+            except Exception:
+                logger.exception("Error processing OData item: %s", item)
+
+        logger.debug("Fetched page skip=%d, got %d records", skip, len(values))
+        if len(values) < _PAGE_SIZE:
+            break  # last page
+        skip += _PAGE_SIZE
 
     logger.info("Processed %d MP metadata records", processed)
     return processed