fix: scree plot now shows true EVR from Procrustes-aligned multi-window SVD

Previously load_scree_data computed L2-norms per dimension on current_parliament
vectors only, giving ~11% for PC1. This was inconsistent with the compass which
uses all windows + Procrustes alignment and gets PC1=24.1%.

Added compute_svd_spectrum() helper to political_axis.py that reuses the same
alignment pipeline. load_scree_data now delegates to it. _render_scree_plot
no longer re-normalizes (inputs are already EVR percentages). Hover label
updated to 'verklaarde variantie'.

analysis/political_axis.py

@@ -551,3 +551,71 @@ def compute_2d_axes(
 
     else:
         raise ValueError("Unknown method '%s'" % method)
+
+
+def compute_svd_spectrum(
+    db_path: str,
+    window_ids: Optional[List[str]] = None,
+    normalize_vectors: bool = True,
+) -> List[float]:
+    """Return explained variance ratios (%) for all SVD components, sorted descending.
+
+    Uses the same Procrustes-aligned multi-window matrix as compute_2d_axes so the
+    scree plot is consistent with the compass axes.
+
+    Args:
+        db_path: path to duckdb
+        window_ids: optional ordered list of windows (defaults to all)
+        normalize_vectors: whether to L2-normalise each MP vector before stacking
+
+    Returns:
+        List of EVR percentages sorted descending (e.g. [24.1, 10.4, 7.2, ...])
+    """
+    import importlib
+
+    _trajectory = importlib.import_module("analysis.trajectory")
+
+    if window_ids is None:
+        window_ids = _trajectory._load_window_ids(db_path)
+
+    raw_window_vecs: Dict[str, Dict[str, np.ndarray]] = {}
+    for wid in window_ids:
+        raw_window_vecs[wid] = _trajectory._load_mp_vectors_for_window(db_path, wid)
+
+    if not raw_window_vecs:
+        return []
+
+    # Pad to uniform dimension before Procrustes alignment
+    max_dim = max(v.shape[0] for d in raw_window_vecs.values() for v in d.values())
+    padded: Dict[str, Dict[str, np.ndarray]] = {}
+    for wid, d in raw_window_vecs.items():
+        padded[wid] = {
+            e: np.pad(v, (0, max_dim - v.shape[0])) if v.shape[0] < max_dim else v
+            for e, v in d.items()
+        }
+
+    aligned = _trajectory._procrustes_align_windows(padded)
+
+    all_vecs = []
+    for d in aligned.values():
+        for v in d.values():
+            if normalize_vectors:
+                n = np.linalg.norm(v)
+                all_vecs.append(v / n if n > 1e-10 else v)
+            else:
+                all_vecs.append(v)
+
+    if not all_vecs:
+        return []
+
+    M = np.vstack(all_vecs)
+    Mc = M - M.mean(axis=0)
+    try:
+        _, s, _ = np.linalg.svd(Mc, full_matrices=False)
+    except np.linalg.LinAlgError:
+        _logger.exception("SVD failed in compute_svd_spectrum")
+        return []
+
+    sv2 = s**2
+    evr = sv2 / (sv2.sum() + 1e-20) * 100
+    return list(evr)  # already sorted descending by SVD

explorer.py

@@ -487,51 +487,18 @@ def load_party_axis_scores(db_path: str) -> Dict[str, List[float]]:
 
 @st.cache_data(show_spinner="Scree-plot laden…")
 def load_scree_data(db_path: str) -> List[float]:
-    """Return per-component importances (L2-norm per SVD dim), sorted descending.
+    """Return explained variance ratios (%) for all SVD components, sorted descending.
 
-    Uses individual MP vectors from current_parliament (entity_id LIKE '%,%').
-    Computes L2-norm per SVD dimension across all MPs, then sorts descending
-    so the elbow shape is visible in the scree chart.
+    Uses the same Procrustes-aligned multi-window matrix as the compass axes so the
+    scree plot is consistent with what the compass actually uses.
     """
     try:
-        con = duckdb.connect(database=db_path, read_only=True)
-        rows = con.execute(
-            "SELECT entity_id, vector FROM svd_vectors "
-            "WHERE entity_type='mp' AND window_id='current_parliament' "
-            "AND entity_id LIKE '%,%'"
-        ).fetchall()
-        vectors: List[List[float]] = []
-        for entity_id, raw_vec in rows:
-            if isinstance(raw_vec, str):
-                vec = json.loads(raw_vec)
-            elif isinstance(raw_vec, (bytes, bytearray)):
-                vec = json.loads(raw_vec.decode())
-            elif isinstance(raw_vec, list):
-                vec = raw_vec
-            else:
-                try:
-                    vec = list(raw_vec)
-                except Exception:
-                    continue
-            fvec = [float(v) if v is not None else 0.0 for v in vec]
-            vectors.append(fvec)
-        if not vectors:
-            return []
-        n_dims = len(vectors[0])
-        importances: List[float] = []
-        for dim in range(n_dims):
-            col = [v[dim] for v in vectors if dim < len(v)]
-            l2 = sum(x**2 for x in col) ** 0.5
-            importances.append(l2)
-        return sorted(importances, reverse=True)
+        from analysis.political_axis import compute_svd_spectrum
+
+        return compute_svd_spectrum(db_path)
     except Exception:
         logger.exception("Failed to load scree data")
         return []
-    finally:
-        try:
-            con.close()
-        except Exception:
-            pass
 
 
 def _render_scree_plot(importances: List[float], n_show: int = 15) -> None:
@@ -547,9 +514,9 @@ def _render_scree_plot(importances: List[float], n_show: int = 15) -> None:
     """
     if not importances:
         return
-    total = sum(importances) or 1.0
-    raw = importances[:n_show]
-    data = [v / total * 100 for v in raw]
+    # importances are already EVR percentages summing to ~100 over all components.
+    # Slice to n_show for display; cumulative line shows how much variance is covered.
+    data = list(importances[:n_show])
     ranks = list(range(1, len(data) + 1))
 
     # Cumulative variance for the dashed overlay line
@@ -573,7 +540,7 @@ def _render_scree_plot(importances: List[float], n_show: int = 15) -> None:
             x=ranks,
             y=data,
             marker_color=bar_colours,
-            hovertemplate="As %{x}<br><b>%{y:.1f}%</b> van totaal<extra></extra>",
+            hovertemplate="As %{x}<br><b>%{y:.1f}%</b> verklaarde variantie<extra></extra>",
             showlegend=False,
         )
     )