---
title: "Policy Extremity vs Voting Extremity: Independent Phenomena"
date: 2026-04-05
module: analysis
problem_type: research
component: motion-analysis
tags: [polarization, policy-extremity, voting-extremity, svd, embedding-norm]
---

# Policy Extremity vs Voting Extremity: Independent Phenomena

## Key Finding

**Voting extremity** (how divided parliament is) and **policy extremity** (how far motions are from political center) are **independent phenomena** with opposite trends:

| Measure | 2016 | 2026 | Trend |
|---------|------|------|-------|
| **Voting Extremity** | 0.70 | 0.46 | More divided |
| **Policy Extremity** | 9.0 | 4.2 | Less extreme |

**Correlation: r = -0.011** (essentially zero)

## Definitions

### Voting Extremity
- **Formula**: margin / total votes
- **Interpretation**: How divided parliament is
  - 1.0 = unanimous (all votes same direction)
  - 0.0 = perfectly split (50-50)
- **Trend**: Increased (more close votes in recent years)

### Policy Extremity
- **Formula**: L2 norm of SVD embedding vector
- **Interpretation**: How "far out" a motion is in political semantic space
- **Trend**: Decreased (motions closer to political center)

## Analysis

### Why Are They Independent?

1. **Voting extremity** captures **how parties divide** on issues
2. **Policy extremity** captures **where motions sit** in policy space

A motion can be:
- Near the center (low policy extremity) but divide parties 50-50 (high voting extremity)
- Far from center (high policy extremity) but pass unanimously (low voting extremity)

### Historical Pattern

- **2016**: Coalition passed "extreme" motions (legislative proposals) with consensus
- **2026**: More divided votes on "moderate" motions (procedural/administrative)

### Interpretation

The parliament has become **more divided in how it votes**, but the **policies being passed are actually less extreme** in semantic space.

This suggests:
- The polarization is about **different issues** dividing parties
- The "extremes" that pass are now closer to mainstream positions
- What changed is **what divides parties**, not **how radical the policies are**

## Visualization

See `docs/research/voting_vs_policy_extremity.png`

## Methodology

```python
# Voting extremity = margin / total
voting_extremity = abs(votes_for - votes_against) / total_votes

# Policy extremity = L2 norm of SVD embedding
policy_extremity = np.linalg.norm(embedding_vector)
```

## Conclusion

These findings confirm that **voting extremity ≠ policy extremity**. They capture different aspects of parliamentary behavior and should be analyzed separately.

The increase in voting extremity reflects genuine polarization in parliamentary divisions. But the decrease in policy extremity suggests that the policies actually being passed are not more radical—they're just more contested.
